The economic scenarios for Latin America point to slight growth for this year, or at least that is what several international associations mention that, year after year, They make growth projections and observe the economic behavior of each nation in the world.
One of these is the world Bankwhich was in charge of comparing the economic performance of countries by region and, in the case of Latin Americavery changing results can be observed and with a significant distance between them.
(You can read: If inflation in Colombia is stagnant, how is that of other countries in the region?).
If you do the exercise of comparing the results of the main economies of the region (Colombia, Chile, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Ecuador)you can see mostly positive figures.
Colombian economy Laura Sepúlveda / Portfolio
Taking into account what the institution has projected for the region this year, It can be seen that the World Bank has changed its growth projections for the countries of this region, including Colombia.
(More: The new growth and fiscal deficit projections made by the Minhacienda).
At the regional level, the growth projection for this year It stood at 2.3% in January, however, for the new projections published in June, it stood at 1.8%..
This reduction was due, as explained by the World Bank, to “high real interest in 2023 and weak trade growth in 2024“.
(Keep reading: Bank profits fell 32% through April).
“Growth for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points since January, mainly due to reduced regional exports and a marked deterioration in the near-term outlook for Argentina, where fiscal policy measures are expected to and monetary policy needed to address chronic imbalances cause a temporary contraction“, Add.
GDP iStock
In January of the current year, projections pointed to more pronounced growth by the end of the year, except in countries with a marked financial crisis. These were the expectations at the beginning of the year for the main South American powers:
– Colombia: 1.4%
– Brazil: 2 %
– Chili: 2.6%
– Argentina: -3.5%
– Mexico: 23 %
– Peru: 2.9%
– Ecuador: 0.3%
(You can read: Medium-Term Fiscal Framework confirms spending cuts and debt payment as a priority).
Colombian economy Bloomberg
Six months later, the World Bank updated its forecasts, which saw notable changes. These were:
– Colombia: 1.3%
– Brazil: 2 %
– Chili: 2.6%
– Argentina: -3.5%
– Mexico: 23 %
– Peru: 2.9%
– Ecuador: 0.4%
Regarding Colombia’s projections, the entity explains the following: “After weak growth in 2023, private consumption and exports are expected to recover, and the central bank is expected to continue reducing policy rates as inflation eases. Investment growth is also expected to support economic activity as political uncertainty declines. Fiscal support will remain limited as the government seeks to meet its budget targets“.
This change in projections was due to the disruption caused by the falls in projections of countries with an increasingly weakened economy, such as the aforementioned case of Argentina.
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