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Bitcoin is coming off a difficult few weeks: in addition to cannot exceed US$70,000after having reached a maximum price of US$73,000 last March, also registered falls in their active addressesthat is, the successful transactions that are recorded, and in your quote.
Addresses are alphanumeric codes that are used to send and receive crypto: “When there is talk of a decrease or increase in the number of active addresses, reference is being made to whether those addresses received or sent BTC in a certain period,” explained Matías Bari, from Satoshitango.
Both the decrease in these and the price usually indicate a lateralization in the market. But now, according to Sebastián Serrano, CEO of Ripio, “the situation seems to be different.”
In this case, he said, bitcoin incorporated an “unprecedented” element: ETFs, funds listed on the Wall Street and Hong Kong stock exchanges. “ETF providers They manage cryptocurrencies and offer participation in their funds, not a direct sale. Therefore, many corporate clients and investors, who would otherwise have to create a new account and use it (converting this to an active account statement that adds to the statistics), do not need to do so,” he said of a possible factor of the drop.
At this point, Bari added that many “holders” they hold the coins until they reach the “indicated price” to sell. “The other reading is that no more bitcoins have been added to those addresses, which would imply that the purchase level was decreasing. The reality is that there is no single way to read these types of statistics, since they have their positive and negative parts,” he said.
Besides, There is a determining relationship between ETFs and the price: since they represent a form of traditional investment, many businessmen and individuals turned to them, which helped the strong rise of the currency in March, as well as an increase between 65% and 70% from the opening price of the year. “The counterpart is that this diverts interest in controlling a crypto address: there may be dozens, hundreds of people operating BTC through ETFs,” Serrano clarified.
He also stressed that, despite the perceived decline in addresses, it is prudent to clarify that those with at least one dollar in value They went from 77.5 million in the first days of 2024 to almost 85 million in June. Addresses with at least one million dollars also increased, in this case around 35%, and today exceed 126,000.
Regarding its price, Julián Colombo, general director of Bitso Argentina, said that the rise in price in recent days, as well as the increase in institutional demand, suggest a positive medium and long term outlook. “The history of post trends halving “supports this expectation,” he said, referring to the price increase that was expected after the emission was cut in half, something that happened in past cycles.
“The effects [del halving] this year have been more or less as expected: short-term stability with enthusiasm for long-term growth“, he stated, while highlighting that these currencies are subject to market dynamics, international rates, inflationary evolution in the United States and regulatory progress, “which always plays an important role and may have to do with that volatility”.
It should be noted that, despite this hope, the currency reached its maximum before the halvingand its price seems to have stagnated since then, coming and going between the range of 60,000 to 70,000 dollars. This adds to what Serrano explained about the dynamics of ETFs, since the currency encountered several competitors: both Ethereum, which had higher percentage increases in value, and the so-called altcoins –alternative currencies–, among which They find memecoins, like Solana, which took part of its prominence from BTC.
Still, optimism that it will peak again persists. According to Bari, The currency is only 10% of that value, “so it is not unreasonable to think that it can be achieved, and even surpassed, in the short and medium term.” In fact, Colombo said that this percentage below its highest price “is really trivial,” since most investors are in the profit zone.
