The International Energy Agency has presented its World Energy Outlook 2023 report and the projections are not so encouraging for zero carbon advocates.
Despite global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and adopt renewable energy, fossil fuel consumption will not decrease significantly. According to the report, the total consumption of these fuels it would only drop to 85% of the current level by 2050.
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Coal, for example, would remain at the level of the beginning of the 21st century, while oil and natural gas would be almost as high as in 2030. This forecast is a far cry from the net-zero carbon scenarios that many countries and organizations have set as goals for mid-century.
Sergio Cabrales, professor and expert in energy and hydrocarbons, commented on the difficulty of reducing the use of coal, when more steel and cement will be needed for infrastructure and other services, than due to the reduction in electricity generation with coal, converting processes energy intensive (e.g. iron smelting, cement and plastics) to non-fossil alternatives requires solutions that are not yet available for large-scale use.
It must be remembered that, historically, coal surpassed firewood as a global energy source in 1900 and its maximum use was recorded in the 1960s. Oil, for its part, reached more than 25% of the fossil fuel supply at the end of the 1950s, and natural gas did so at the end of the 20th century.
“Despite technological advances and the transition to cleaner energy sources, 3 billion people still depend on traditional biomass, which represented 5% of primary energy in 2020. In Colombia, for example, 1.8 million households still cook with firewood”, Cabrales pointed out.
Global dependence on fossil fuels has therefore continued to increase in the 21st century. Between 1997 and 2023, global consumption of these fuels grew by 55%and its share in global energy consumption only decreased from 86% in 1997 to 82% in 2022.
In the midst of these data, it was known that a record figure in oil production in Colombia. Since April 2020, no more than 790,000 barrels per day have been reported, according to the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH).
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“The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to continue increasing to reach 105 million barrels in 2030anticipating a decrease in gasoline demand, but an increase in almost all other products,” said Cabrales.
Ultimately, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 report highlights the complexity of the energy transition and the challenges we still face to achieve a sustainable future. Despite global efforts, The path to a zero-carbon world appears to be full of obstacles and will require significant technological innovations to change the current trend.
