Agriculture could liquidate USD 26,882 million in 2024, which represents an increase of 51% compared to last year, in the midst of a drought, but 11% behind the average of the last three years, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR). .
The estimates were made assuming that the export exchange rate or blend dollar (80% to the MULC and 20% to the CCL) will be maintained throughout the year, something that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) questioned in its last staff report but that the Government ratified on repeated occasions. This scheme implies a lower accumulation of reserves for the Central Bank because the supply of dollars is divided into the official and financial markets.
In detail, the supply of agricultural dollars in the official exchange market will amount to USD 20,995 million in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 30% after last year’s drought, but it is 30% behind the average of the last 3 years (USD 30,372 million). Added to this amount are the 5,887 million dollars that the sector would sell for CCL.
So far this year, 40% of the annual projection (USD 10,791 million) has been settled, in line with the 41% average for the same period of the last five years.
Of that amount, USD 8,416 million were entered into the official exchange market, practically unchanged compared to last year’s official dollar offer and 36% below the average of the last 3 years, even though in the first five months of the year, 38.7 million tons were exported in volume, 70% more than the previous year and 9% above the average of the last three years. Meanwhile, USD 2,375 million were settled in the financial market.
“This implies that USD 16,091 million would remain to be settled, of which USD 12,580 would go to make up the foreign exchange supply of the official exchange market (as long as the same prices as at present are registered in the rest of the year and the price is not modified). current exchange rate regime 80/20) and USD 3,512 would make up the supply of financial dollars,” said the BCR.
What this estimate shows, in general terms, is that the dollar income from agriculture recovers less than the projected volume of exports due to the fall in international prices, since the accumulated foreign exchange income as of May is in line with previous campaigns. .
BCR; “If the projected volume of exports for the year 2024 is valued at the average prices of the last three years, it would yield a value of USD 36,808 million”
In this sense, the volume of exports in tons projected for 2024 is 58% higher than in 2023, with 89.4 million tons for the main agricultural complexes, and is even 6% higher than the average of the last three years. However, average prices fell 19% compared to the previous year and 16% compared to the average of the last 3 years.
In fact, “if the projected volume of exports for the year 2024 is valued at the average prices of the last three years, it would yield a value of USD 36,808 million, more than doubling the total liquidation of agricultural dollars from the immediately previous year (USD 17,833 million)”, stated the entity.
“It should be noted that the projected volume of exports, despite showing a notable recovery in relation to the year of the drought, is still far behind the maximums reached in the past, making it evident that Argentina has not managed to sustain the rate of growth of their exports, at least to the extent that other comparable countries have done,” concluded the BCR.
