The month of June ends flat for the markets and even negative for indices that have been impacted by political uncertainty, such as the CAC-40 and the FTSE MIB. And yet, the annual reading remains positive. Especially in the US. The question now is, if with the references we have on the table, the Central Banks will continue their downward path in interest rates.
This is one of the variables that, according to UBS, could continue to push the S&P 500 higher. And not just the FED, because, says the investment bank, factors such as growing corporate profits or falling inflation could boost the S&P 500’s earnings by up to 11%.
The underlying question is whether the big technology companies, those that dominate the behavior of the large American indices, will continue to rise. Nvidia has had a setback this June but Artificial Intelligence should continue to be the driving force behind the rise of this type of company.
As the uses and applications of artificial intelligence advance, investors are developing new methods of analysis, as is the case of UBS Group N. It has divided the value chain of artificial intelligence or AI into three layers: Enablement, intelligence and application. With this, it can perceive whether or not companies comply with these aspects. To do this, they have taken Alphabet-A’s AI business model and seen if it covers the entire chain.
On the European stock market, the European elections – which led to the call for elections in France – have triggered a wave of sales in both the country’s and Italian companies. Tomorrow is the first round of the elections between Le Pen and Macron and the possibilities are between a split result or a victory for Le Pen and her allies.
In this entire framework there is a sector that is already being affected, the banking sector. Entities such as BNP Paribas A (25% of its business in France) have dropped 7.6% since the announcement of early elections in France. You may be interested: Caution for French banking investors until the end of the year!
Without leaving Europe, the Investment Strategies analysis department selects up to four values by identifying interesting chart figures to monitor for the current weekly close, being classified between (1) trend continuity figures or (2) trend continuity figures. trend change or short-term trading. Among them are BBVA, Kering, Safran and Ageas. Both BBVA, Kering and Ageas are trading with “very strong” aggregate strength.
When looking for companies that are part of the Portfolio, Alfonso de Gregorio, Investment Director of Finaccess Value, acknowledges having an opportunistic vision and “there is a percentage of the portfolio in which we are taking advantage of the hysteria and strong volatility, which generates many opportunities and even values and sectors that have nothing to do with the geopolitical hot spots that are being talked about.
Within the Spanish stock market, we spoke with Luciano Díez Canedo, president of Singular AM, who acknowledges that despite the rise, Santander is still trading at attractive multiples for a bank of an already large size, in what is the universe of European banks. , but at the same time we are aware that it is also a bank that has a much higher weight within the IGBM or even the IBEX 35 than other banks may have. In such a way that it is a bank where more or less we will always have a position in it. However, right now and despite that attractiveness, we are clearly underweight. Of course, if we had to put things in relative terms, Santander-BBVA, today we would be betting more on Santander than on BBVA, even despite the significant cut that BBVA has had recently with the whole issue of the operation with Sabadell.
For his part, Jaume Puig, general director of GVC Gaesco Gestión, recognizes that “there are many market segments with great potential. Both hotels and airlines are recording excellent results, and account for around a third of the fund’s investment. We detected a strong potential in many other segments in which we invest, such as cruises, tourist airports, airport shops, car rentals or motorhomes, among others.
In a year marked by volatility and economic uncertainty, three small companies listed on BME Growth have managed to stand out with surprising returns, exceeding a 70% increase in their values. Labiana, Tier1 and Secuoya Content have demonstrated that with innovative strategies and efficient management, it is possible to successfully navigate challenging markets.
PMI, IFO, money supply, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, interest rates… An enormous amount of data is published weekly that could drive any investor crazy who wants to keep track of it all. Macroeconomics is essential to determine where the stock market and markets are in the cycle, but we must be able to identify those that are really important and those that only generate market noise.
