In the survey it was observed that The increase in Beverages (3.5%) was offset by the fall in Dairy (-3.7%). Bread products also fell (-0.4%), while ready-to-go foods (3.4%), Oils (2.8%) and Sugar (2%) showed strong increases.
The consultant’s report stated that Monthly inflation continues to consolidate its deceleration that began in mid-Januaryaccording to its records, when it reached a peak of 32.2%, to currently stand at 2.8% measured tip to tip.
However, he warned that “with this downward dynamic, we should not lose sight of the fact that “Even 25% of the food basket registers weekly increases, showing high inertia: the entire basket has at least one increase per month”. “In this way,” he added, “the only difference from a few weeks ago is the magnitude of the increase, but the behavior of increasing prices remains.”
Assuming that in the last week of April the increase in food prices is sustained at a level below 1% weekly, the month would close with an average increase of 3.2%. “This imposes an inflation point, to which “We will have to add the impact of the increases in gas (+211%, 0.8 pp) and electricity (+181%, 3.4 pp) this month”it was specified.
The slowdown in food prices is accentuated.
To a lesser extent, the behavior of increasing prices remains in the country.
What would be the inflation in April?
Thus, the April retail inflation projection would be around 9% monthly, breaking double digits for the first time in five months.
“In this recessive framework, April food inflation marked a clear slowdown, even with deflation in some products. The Price Survey had significantly lower records than those of March and, once the regulated price increases were computed, “We see a non-negligible probability that April inflation will be in single digits.”considered LCG.
In this scenario, the presidential spokesperson Manuel Adorni said a week ago that “wholesale inflation recorded in March was 5.4%, a number that is in line with what we consider to be a collapse in April retail inflation expectations”.
“This indicator is usually a good reference of what is coming in terms of the CPI, therefore it is good news since in December it was around 54%, which anticipated prices running at 17,000%. In this case, you are anticipating that inflation will continue to collapse,” he said.
The consulting firm EcoGo, for its part, assessed that April inflation will be around 8.9%.. While Libertad and Progreso projected a monthly increase of 9%. If these forecasts are confirmed, it would be the first single-digit rise in the CPI since October 2023.
The EcoGo survey for the third week of April confirmed that “food registered an increase of 1.4%, after a week practically without variations.” Thus, “inflation in food consumed within the home would rise to 5.6% in April”highlighted this consultant.
