The summer of 2009 set unusual temperature records in the central zone. According to the record of that time, that summer season became the hottest in almost a century. The statistic would not be isolated. For more than a decade, the high temperature and low rainfall records would be broken consecutively. It was, what was unknown at that time, the beginning of a megadrought that has now been going on for more than 10 years, the most extensive since there have been records in the country.
Although the megadrought had a truce in 2023, with normal rainfall thanks to the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, the imminent arrival of its climatic antonym -La Niña- predicts a frozen and dry winter for much of the country by 2024 and, what is worse, the return of the megadrought.
The data is worrying, since this extreme aridity It is generating not only environmental damage, but also economic damage.
According to a study published by the Capes Center for Applied Ecology and Sustainability of the Catholic University (The economic impacts of long-term droughts: challenges, gaps and the way forward), which carried out a collection, analysis and systematization of data, determined that the cost of the megadrought in the country is already US$1,202 million.
Francisco Fernández, researcher who led the work, says that “although at the beginning the main motivation for carrying out this research was to be able to determine the economic impact of the megadrought in the central zone of the country from 2010 onwards, As we progressed, we realized that we were facing a scenario barely reviewed by the literature.”.
Droughts typically correspond to periods of rainfall below the multi-year average (more than 30) for months or years. In the central area of Chile the phenomenon extended for more than a decade and that is why it has been considered a megadrought.a phenomenon that presents more complex natural and human dynamics than short-term droughts, indicates the document issued by the Catholic University, among them its high financial cost.
But that is not the only study that has measured the impact of the country’s climate transformation. Another investigation, published in the scientific journal Nature (The economic commitment of climate change), It also reveals the high economic cost that the country has had to pay as a result of climate change and one of its cruelest exponents, the megadrought.
The research, conducted by academics from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research (PIK), projected the high cost of climate change globally. The estimate established that between now and mid-century there could be income declines of up to 20% due to climate change.
Raúl Cordero, climatologist at the University of Santiago, explains that in the case of Chile, the study published in Nature projects that average income would fall 10% below its potential until mid-century, due to the effects of climate change. “We are talking about relative losses of the order of 50 billion dollars for the country, equivalent to around 15% of the current GDP.”
For your projection, The German research took as reference recent empirical data from more than 1,600 regions over the last 40 years, being able to establish the damage caused by the impact of temperatures and precipitation at an economic level.
Cordero points out that climate change not only affects the environment, but it has profound social consequences. “In particular, the footprint of ‘cascading climate risks’ is already evident at local and regional levels across the global south, including Chile,” he says.
Cordero explains that these “cascading climate risks” They usually originate from extreme climatic events, such as droughts or floods, which, by conditioning agricultural production, affect food prices and food security, as in a cascade effect. “The poorest quintiles are particularly vulnerable to food pricesso price increases, even in limited periods, usually have enormous impacts on social peace and political stability,” he points out.
Despite the pessimistic scenario projected by the German study, The country’s situation is not as catastrophic as for other nations in the region.
“Chile is among the lucky countries in the region. The study projects that the average income in South America would grow 15% to 20% below its potential until mid-century due to the effects of climate change.Cordero adds, numbers higher than those projected for Chile.
The damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperaturebut taking into account other climate components raises the estimates by approximately 50% and leads to greater regional heterogeneity, maintains the German research.
The study says that Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, in which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The greatest losses are committed at lower latitudes, in regions with lower accumulated historical emissions and lower current incomes.
Cordero explains that in addition to indirect costs, The costs of the drought have involved extraordinary direct outlays. “For example, the cost of tank trucks to meet the emerging needs of the rural population affected by drought is estimated to be close to 500 million dollars in the last decade.”
He Climate change is intensifying and prolonging droughts in different parts of the planet, particularly in places with a Mediterranean climate, such as California, South Africa and central Chile.
Every five to 10 years, moderate droughts occur with a rainfall deficit of 10% to 20%, but since 2010, dry years have occurred uninterruptedly, with great environmental, economic and social impacts. Several economic sectors depend on water for their functioning, such as agriculture, hydroelectric, forestry, tourism and, of course, the supply of urban and rural drinking water, adds the analysis carried out by Capes.
Cordero reiterates that the megadrought and its economic consequences, Social and political changes have become a classic global case of “cascading climate risks.”
For its analysis, the Capes Center used national agricultural statistics on cultivated area, prices, yields and production costs of 20 agricultural activities by region and commune in central Chile.
For the urban drinking water sector, data from the National Association of Sanitary Services Companies of Chile (Andess) was used, which compiled and delivered the capital and operating expenses made by companies to face the drought.
And finally, the rural drinking water sector, where governments have allocated resources to address water shortages through tanker truck delivery.
The research also showed how institutions in Chile have had to generate significant adaptability and economic solidity to face the current megadrought. This is reflected in the fact that during the first years of the drought, the economic costs were lower, since the amount of water stored in aquifers and reservoirs was almost at full capacity.
As the drought continued, reserves began to deplete and economic costs increased. Given this, “it is necessary to identify the turning point (tipping-point) where water scarcity will become such that costs would skyrocket,” warns Fernández.
Calculating this moment is complex unfortunately, “due to lack of hydrological information”adds the Capes researcher, since it depends on the infrastructure capacity, the amount of stored water and adaptation strategies,” among other factors.
Cordero points out that without the presence of the megadrought the social outbreak probably would not have occurred. “Without a megadrought, Gabriel Boric probably would not have had such a meteoric rise. Without climate change, perhaps Boric would not be President“, predicts the climatologist.
The social and political impact of global warming and its climatic manifestations has been the subject of analysis at an international level, including through book publications, such as Urban Movements and Climate Change: Loss, Damage and Radical Adaptationwritten by the environmental historian of the Autonomous University of Barcelona Marco Armiero, who tells the social impact of climate change in different parts of the world, such as Chile.
Cordero explains that Drought means poor harvests, which leads to expensive food and inflation, and ultimately social unrest and protest.s. “Then the population opts for a change in the elections… it happened in Chile with Boric and more recently in Argentina with Milei,” he says.
“The point is that the extreme events that climate change makes more intense and frequent, such as drought and floods, have not only economic and social consequences, but also political ones,” concludes the Usach climatologist.
