In Argentina, inflation and rate adjustments have brought the population’s income to historic lows. Although inflation has shown signs of slowing after peaking at 25% in December, is not expected to compensate for the sharp loss of purchasing power.
According to estimates, Consumption could fall by 10% this year, while real wages, especially in the formal private sector, could decrease by an average of 7%. Some optimistic consulting firms predict that recovery will not arrive until 2025.
The consulting firm Abeceb estimates that next year Sales in supermarkets could grow by 2.5%, activity in restaurants would show a positive result of 4.5%, and the sale of household appliances would grow by 12.3%.. However, the population’s disposable income could be reduced even further due to the strong readjustment of the relative prices of services such as gas, electricity, water, public transportation and fuel, which have increased above inflation.
The prices of many goods and services key to everyday life have far exceeded the rate of inflation. For example, electricity and gas increased by 300%, food by 306%, medicines by 379%, and public transportation by 385%.
In this context, It is estimated that sales in supermarkets could fall an average of 11% in 2024, while in restaurants the fall would be 7.5%. Consumers are opting for local stores and cheaper brands, in addition to taking advantage of promotions and discounts.
And, as for appliances, a 25% drop is expected by 2024since the predisposition to purchase has continued to decline in the first months of the year, reaching its lowest point since the start of the pandemic.
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