The seasonal forecast issued by specialists from the Climate Center and the Forecast Center of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology, predicts that the 2024 cyclonic season will be very active throughout the North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. .
It is predicted the formation of 20 tropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic basin, of which 11 could reach hurricane status.
Of the total number of tropical cyclones, 14 could develop in the Atlantic oceanic area, four in the Caribbean Sea and another two in the Gulf of Mexico.
The probabilities of at least one hurricane originating and intensifying in the Caribbean are very high (85%), while the probability of one from the Atlantic origin penetrating the Caribbean is 70%.
The danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80% probability.
Even greater is the danger for Cuba that at least one tropical cyclone will affect it, with a probability of 90%.
The fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclonic activity over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will be favorable for the cyclonic season to be very active.
The official information stated that “the sea surface temperature in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic has shown high values from June 2023 to April 2024. The models indicate that this warming could persist during the cyclonic season and favorably influence the formation and development of tropical cyclones.
Another important factor to take into account for the forecast of the cyclonic season is that the current El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event has begun to weaken.
Most models predict that the current ENSO could end in May, with neutral conditions establishing later.
There is a high probability that a La Niña – Southern Oscillation (AENOS) event will develop in the coming months, which would also be favorable for the cyclone season to be very active.
Like every year, the cyclonic season begins next June 1 and will last until November 30. Between 1991 and 2020, the historical annual average for the emergence of tropical cyclonic systems is 14. An update of the forecast released today, which issued since 1996 by the Institute of Meteorology, it will be done on August 1.
It is appropriate to remember that for the series of years between 1991 and 2020, the historical annual average for the emergence of tropical cyclonic systems is fourteen.
According to Dr. Pérez Suárez, the probability of at least one hurricane originating and intensifying in the Caribbean is very high at 85 percent, while it is 70 percent in the event that one from the Atlantic origin penetrates the sea. Caribbean.
He specified that the danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is very high, having an 80 percent probability. Regarding the possibility of at least one tropical cyclone impacting the largest of the Antilles, the figure rises to 90%.
Asked about the subject, the Climate Center researcher specified that “the oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea will be very favorable to the development of cyclonic activity, taking into account the very high values of the sea surface temperature. (from June 2023 to April 2024, record numbers have been reached each month for the period 1951-2024) and the observed weakening of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, which must end in May to subsequently establish neutral conditions.” .
Added to this is the high probability that a new La Niña/Southern Oscillation (AENOS) event will emerge and come into full development starting in July or August.
Consisting of an anomalous cooling of ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña usually causes a decrease in the so-called vertical wind shear at altitude in the Atlantic basin, a key factor for the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.
An update of this forecast, which has been issued by the Institute of Meteorology since 1996, will be made on August 1st.
