The news combo that made the parallels rise and the shares fall up to 9%

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Negative interest rates in pesos, doubts about the sanction of the Bases Law and uncertainty about a possible blow to the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) if the Government does not renegotiate the swap of currencies with China. This news combo impacts free dollars this week, which rise up to $30 a day and set nominal records.

The headwinds that came from outside didn’t help either. In a negative day at the international level, Argentine stocks registered falls of up to 9% abroad and the country risk rose 72 basis points.

He MEP dollar GD30, an instrument that Argentines found to dollarize in times of exchange restrictions, this Tuesday is trading at $1284.62. It means an increase of almost $14.7 (+1.2%), which takes it to record the highest nominal price on record. In the first two days of the week, it accumulates an increase of $68.7 (+5.65%), a variation that exceeds the performance of a 30-day fixed term (2.5%) in local currency.

This same trend can be observed in the cash with settlement (CCL), capital market tool that allows dollars to be transferred to a bank account outside Argentina. Today, it rises $18.4 and sells for $1,315.85 (+1.4%).

In this case, it is also a nominal record, after free quotes remained practically unchanged between February and mid-May. By adjusting current values ​​for US and Argentine inflation, Today the CCL surpassed its average price of the last 10 years, of $1308 at constant valuesaccording to an analysis by Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).

“I think mainly there is a temporary change in expectations, which reflect concerns derived from the lack of definition of the sanction of the Bases Law and the probable difficulties of the ruling party to succeed in the Senate. Assuming that this transition is positive, the process remains in Deputies. The market views the delay of the sanction with concern and that translates, at least today, into a change in portfolios that dollarizes holdings. All this weather is also capable of influencing the mood of producers, who could begin to delay their sales. Agricultural income in May was the highest this year, but it is somewhat below other years,” said Gustavo Quintana, Cambios PR operator.

The liquidations of exporters are key to the future of financial dollars. Currently, those who sell outside the country can channel 20% of their income via financial dollars, which adds to the supply of foreign currency and causes its price to fall. They have to sell the remaining 80% at the official exchange rate, which today unusually falls by $1 and is trading at $897 (-0.1%).

“The dynamics of financial quotes largely depends on flows, and our estimate of total export settlements for yesterday showed low levels. We remember that, even with the improvement in agricultural settlement in May, total settlements fell, which implies lower CCL supply for ‘blend dollar’, something that can put pressure on the price, which in May advanced above inflation. Going forward, the fundamental variable to follow are these flows, which will determine how much CCL supply per ‘blend dollar’ there will be, in a context in which rates were cut several timesreducing the attractiveness of the carry trade,” said Juan Manuel Franco, Chief Economist of Grupo SBS.

Meanwhile, for Delphos Investment analysts, the possibility that The Government must pay the activated section of the swap with China, for about US$5 billion between June and July. “If it is confirmed that there is no renegotiation, it will also raise concerns about the impact on reserves. But it is still a rumor that is not confirmed,” Quintana added.

In this tense scenario, the Dolar blue imitates financiers and sells for $1265 among the caves and trees of the City Buenos Aires That’s $30 more than yesterday (+2.43%) and has accumulated $40 so far this week (+2.32%).

It is a wheel of numbers in red for Argentine stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ADR), a trend that was also observed during the previous day. This Tuesday, BBVA’s papers fall by up to 7.2%, followed by those of Supervielle Bank (-6.8%), YPF (-6.8%) and Galicia Financial Group (-5.9%).

The Buenos Aires stock market registers a fall of 3.3% compared to the previous close, in line with the main US indices. In the main panel, made up of the companies with the highest volume of operations, the most marked declines are for YPF (-5.22%), BBVA (-5.10%) and Banco Supervielle (-4.66%). .

The bonuses of the last debt exchange also operate in negative territory, in all their maturities and legislations. The Bonares fell 4.08% abroad (this is the case of AL41D) and the Global ones, up to 3.23% (GD38D). This directly impacts the risk country, and rises 60 units, to 1,474 basis points (+4.24%).