10:51 AM
He dollar began rising, despite the announcement by the European Central Bank, ECB, that it reduced interest rates. However, analysts point out that the volatility of recent days is leveraged by the political situation, and the announcements about the fiscal situation of the Colombian state.
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The currency opened the day with a price of $3,945, about $17.09 above the Representative Market Rate which for today is $3,927.91. With this, the dollar continues to exceed the barrier of $3,900, a figure that has not been seen since April 26, 2024, when it exceeded $3,930.
According to Juan Pablo Vieira, founder and CEO of JP Tactical Trading, although there are international factors that are increasing the American currency, At the national level, fiscal deterioration is triggering demand for dollars and is expected to continue rising.
“Local catalysts are already starting to weigh in, because everything that they are warning about like Moody’s, JP Morgan, all the big ones have already started to say, Be careful with Colombia, which is no longer attractive because the Government is spending two hands of the income from tax collection and everything is falling very hard. Investor confidence is at rock bottom,” said Vieira.
In the same sense, the economist and director of Inverxia, Alexander Ríos, assures that the uncertainty due to the political situation and the drop in tax collection. But, he assures that internal and external factors are reducing the volatility of recent days; even, in the coming days the figures for the US labor market will be key.
“If international rates cool, that will help the dollar market in Colombia relax. a little, and that it loses that bullish strength, the problem is that for example that international rate will also depend a lot on the oil market, although now it is down, in the long term if it rebounds again that could slow down the decline in international rates , and that will eventually hit us,” Rios explained.
On the international stage, Willian Barreto, an expert in international trade and professor at the Antonio Nariño University, said that the decisions that the Fed will make regarding US monetary policy may be driving the rise of the dollar.
“The appreciation presented during June of $66.99 can be attributed to uncertainty about the decisions that the Federal Reserve will make next June 12 on maintaining or reducing interest rates. This uncertainty encourages investors to look for higher returns in other markets,” Barreto said.
According to Bloomberg, the ECB reduced the deposit interest rate by a quarter point on Thursday, to 3.75%, as expected. After maintaining it at 4% for nine months, they affirmed that the inflation outlook has improved “notably”, although they also raised the forecasts for prices.
“The Governing Council will continue to apply a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of monetary tightening,” the ECB said in a statement.
