Argentina maintained global and regional leadership in inflation in May. The Indec reported that the price increase last month was 4.2% and the last year was 276.4 percent.
For this month, a rebound to 6 or 7 percent is expected, due to the increase in public service rates, among other factors. President Javier Milei He stated that the key is to follow the results of core inflation and that if the CPI rises this month due to public service rates it is not worrying.
In fact, in the first measurement of the month, the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL) stated that the weekly price increase was 3.8%, compared to the average of 1% in previous weeks.
In this way, it once again surpassed Venezuela, which registered a price increase of 3.9% and 78% according to the Venezuelan Finance Observatory (OVF), independent of the government of Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, for the Central Bank of that country, inflation was 1.4% last month and 50% last year.
Globally, Turkey was third with an increase of 75% last year and Lebanon was fourth with 58 percent.
In Latin America, annual inflation was 7.1% and May 0.4%; Mexico was fourth with 4.7% (-0.25 in the month); Paraguay 4.4% (0.4%); Uruguay 4.1% (0.4%); Bolivia 3.5% (0.6%); Chile 3.4% (0.3%); and Ecuador 2.5% (-0.1%).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in April that Argentina’s inflation will be 149% this year and 59% next year.
In his review of the program with Argentina, the staff of the Fund indicated that the priority of monetary and exchange rate policy “continues to strengthen the disinflation process and strengthen international reserves and the central bank balance.”
In the transition “toward a new monetary regime (involving currency competition), monetary policy will evolve to continue anchoring inflation expectations and exchange rate policy will become more flexible, while exchange restrictions and controls will continue to be reduced to as conditions permit.”
Meanwhile, the World Bank expressed this week that the rise in prices in Argentina pushes up the average for the entire region.
The entity that presides Ajay Banga indicated that “persistent inflation and abrupt fluctuations in exchange rates discourage long-term investment and the development of capital markets.”
In this sense, the organization indicated that “general and underlying inflation have continued to fall throughout the region, although at a slower pace. The exception among major Latin American countries is Argentina, which saw a significant rise in monthly inflation in early 2024 but is now showing signs of moderation in both inflation and inflation expectations.”
According to its latest report on the world economic outlook (WEO), the IMF indicated that Argentina will once again lead the ranking, followed by Venezuela with 100% this year and 150% next year.
As for the rest of the continent, the United States would end up with a price increase of 2.7% this year and 1.9% in 2025, Canada 1.2% and 2.3% and Mexico 2.7% and 1. 9%, respectively.
Furthermore, in Colombia it would reach 6.4% and 3.6%, Uruguay 5.8% and 5.5%, Bolivia 4.5% and 4.2%, Paraguay 3.8% and 4%, Chile 3, 2% and 3% and Peru 2.3% and 2%.
“The global inflation projection has decreased from 2.8% at the end of 2024 to 2.4% at the end of 2025,” indicated the organization that leads Kristalina Georgieva.
In this way, although Next year, Argentine inflation will drop to double digits, for now the country seems destined to remain at the top of this negative global podium.
