The studies undertaken in Cuba starting in the first half of the 1990s confirmed that the influence of extreme thermal conditions and the anomalous behavior of other weather variables constitute potentially relevant factors for the increase in daily morbidity and mortality, associated to chronic non-communicable diseases of high prevalence in our population, such as cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory and neurological diseases.
Initiator of these investigations in our country, the doctor in Geographic Sciences Luis Lecha Estela, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Meteorology, explained to Granma that the Cuban climate is already experiencing the impacts of global warming.
Among them, the increase in average temperature by one degree Celsius in the last seven decades stands out, and the occurrence, starting in 2010, of repeated and prolonged intense heat events, characterized by the greater frequency of days with temperature values maximum temperatures above 35 and 36 degrees Celsius, in different calendar months.
To illustrate what was stated, he pointed out that 2023 was the warmest year that has occurred on the Island since 1951, in which, in addition to the average temperature exceeding the historical average of that variable by 1.38 degrees, 91 maximum temperature records were established.
«Likewise, on April 11 of this year a new absolute national primacy of heat was implemented, when the extremely significant record of 40.1 degrees Celsius was recorded in Jucarito, province of Granma, while last May was the hottest in 73 years. , and set 35 maximum temperature records in the same number of weather stations in the three regions of the country, with the highest report of 39.2 degrees in Velasco, Holguín.
As Lecha Estela specified, research carried out in the last five years by specialists from the Meteorological Center of the Isla de la Juventud and the Faculty of Medical Sciences of Sagua La Grande, attached to the University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara, demonstrated that there is a definite relationship between the most notable daily maximums of excess mortality, which occurred in Cuba during the period 2001-2020, and the incidence of meteorological factors promoting this scenario.
In general terms, the aforementioned term can be defined as the number of deaths much higher than usual that can occur at a given place and time, he stressed.
According to the expert, excess mortality, as an epidemiological indicator, has gained space as a way to objectively express the impact of major accidents, disasters of different origins, wars, epidemics and other contingencies.
The results identified, over the course of those 20 years, the presence of 1,123 days with excess daily mortality, and suggest that 67.3% of these deaths can be directly or indirectly associated with intense meteorotropic effects.
At present, the expert emphasized, it is accepted that weather changes can generate asthma attacks, allergy events and other conditions, but there is no perception of the magnitude of the current meteorotropic risk on people’s health, the which should increase in the coming years, due to climate change.
“In fact, in the world and in Cuba, this problem is relatively new, which is why the statistics responsible for reflecting the main causes of death do not yet identify those associated with the influence of extreme weather conditions,” he said.
BIOMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS, AN OPTION?
Under the guidance of Dr. Luis Lecha, the country has been delving for more than two decades into the design of so-called biometeorological forecasts, the essence of which consists of identifying and warning, several days in advance, the occurrence of weather conditions favorable to the appearance or worsening of the diseases described, among vulnerable groups of the population.
The first experiences, he stressed, focused on preventing the effects of heat stroke on national poultry production.
Later, he said, they were extended to human health, with the Villa Clara municipalities of Sagua la Grande, Santa Clara and Ranchuelo, and Playa, in Havana, as test sites.
“Although for totally subjective reasons this type of service has not been officially established, the validation of the results in Cuba and other countries showed high effectiveness, as happened in Villa Clara during the confrontation with COVID-19” , he explained.
In the case of bronchial asthma, he emphasized, 94% accuracy was achieved in the predictions issued linked to the increase in the number of people treated in the guard corps of the Health institutions participating in the experience, followed by acute respiratory infections, 90% and high blood pressure, with 87%.
We have the technological capacity and human capital to offer this information to the Health units that request it, stressed Dr. Lecha Estela.
