The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) periodically produces its National Monthly Crop Estimation Report. With the 2024/25 campaign already underway, this month’s report becomes relevant for wheat given the possibility of sowing and production records.
The estimate for the 2024/25 campaign indicates that 6.92 million hectares will be planted, 1.4 million or 25% more than in the last agricultural campaign and twenty thousand hectares more than in the largest campaign in history in 21 /22.
The BCR report is optimistic regarding the performance of this campaign because throughout the planting area the abundant rains in March and April left “the profiles well loaded”, an expression used to indicate that there is a good amount of humidity in the soil, below the surface, a crucial issue for Argentine wheat, which in much of the sowing geography takes place in the season with the least rainfall of the year.
The other aspect that predicts strong growth in the planted area is that the national production scheme involves alternating soybeans with grasses (wheat, corn, barley, etc.) and last summer’s corn crops were strongly affected by the plague of the “chicharrita”. This would cause many producers to reinforce the scheme by sowing wheat in the winter, in a context of improved profitability due to the December mega devaluation.
Estimated production
More hectares do not necessarily imply more production, but if average yields are maintained (about 31.5 quintals per hectare), it could also be a record campaign in the production of a cereal that is very present in the Argentine diet, but with exportable balances that They can reach 50% of production.
With the level of technology that would be applied this year plus the projection in the use of fertilizers, if the climate does not play against the crop, the report estimates that “the harvest could exceed 21 million tons.” In that case, the second most important harvest in the history of cereal would be obtained.
record Córdoba
Within the record growth of the planted area nationwide, Córdoba will be the province that grows the most, with an increase of 35% compared to the last campaign’s sowing. That’s well above the national average increase of 25%. There are some 350,000 additional hectares that will make the area dedicated to wheat in the province exceed one million hectares.
For its part, there would also be a strong year-on-year increase in the area planted with cereal in Santa Fe, where 270,000 hectares would be added (25%). For Buenos Aires, an increase in intentionality of 18% is expected, with a strong recovery in the western sectors of the province.
