11:35 AM
The streak of bad news about the economy Antioch It was extended until the first quarter of this year. After having finished 2023 as the department with the greatest drop in its GDP (-0.4%), the start of 2024 was almost as negative and the decrease was 0.3%.
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This is revealed by the monthly economic activity index (Imae), of the Bank of the Republicin which it was explained that although interest rates have fallen and the rise in consumer prices has moderated, the internal demand of the paisas remains weak.
“Almost all the economic sectors represented in the Imae variables explained the reduction. With the exception of exports, pork production and electricity demand, the other indicators registered an annual decrease in the first quarter of the year,” it was described.
The situation is of utmost concern, because although it is true that the Colombian economy is going through a moment of deceleration, which was reflected in the tenuous growth of 0.7% in the first quarter, Antioquia continues to perform worse than the national average.
Regarding the main sectors that move the country’s economy, it was observed, In the case of industry, a 9.6% decrease in real production and 10% on actual sales. “Despite its recent moderation, the high price level and high financing costs once again weakened domestic demand, to which was added the decline in industrial exports, resulting in lower production needs in order to limit accumulation. of inventories.”
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The Banrep report found a more pronounced drop in the production of textiles and clothing due to low requirements for different distribution channels and external sales. There were also negative records in non-metallic minerals due to lower demand for construction materials, and the food and beverage group also decreased.
In commerce, another bastion of productive activity in this area of the country, there were mixed results. Thus, the marketing of motorcycles and consumer confidence returned to positive ground; retail sales, including those of vehicles, continued to slow their decline; while hotel occupancy, for its part, accelerated its decline.
As of March of this year, retail sales fell 2.6%, the main reason being low demand “associated with greater caution on the part of consumers due to the high prices of goods.”
The marketing of clothing and footwear, as well as auto parts, were the most affected during the first part of the year. The former showed contractions of 14.6%, while in the case of the latter the low dynamic was seen in a 12.9% lower performance.
In the case of foreign trade there was an increase in exports of 0.1%. “The biggest promoter was banana shipments, which grew 85.9%, especially due to the increase in purchases from Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom.” Nevertheless, In gold, the main product shipped from these mountains, there was a 7% decline, due to lower shipments.
According to Saúl Pineda Hoyos, director of the EIA University Thinking Center, “regional economic activity, which had been left with air in its shirt after the clear recovery of 2021, has entered rocky terrain after the final balance of 2023.”
In the forecasts of that Thinking Center, this year a better performance of non-mining-energy exports from Antioquia would be expected, which would allow it to exceed the figure of US$4,000 million that had been reached in 2022.
“In the midst of this challenging assessment of the prospects for the regional economy, Reaffirming trust between local institutions will be key“Saúl Pineda added.
According to the EIA University, this year it will be key to bet on sustainable tourism, address the competitive challenges for the textile and clothing sector, although There are doubts about the reactivation of branches such as construction, in the absence of policies that allow it.
At this point it is worth mentioning that between January and March the construction sector in Antioquia observed regular behavior, with lower shipments of cement for buildings and low approvals in construction licenses.
