Nicolás Aroma, the director of the Center for Economy and Finance of Mendoza (CEFI Mendoza) spoke in MDZ Radio 105.5 FM on expectations regarding employment in the province for the second semester. The economist gave his analysis of what happened in the first semester and what is to come. How the cuts to achieve the much-mentioned fiscal balance enacted by the president impacted the province Javier Milei and his economic team; and what are the growth possibilities ahead? Mendoza.
Regarding the results recorded between January and June 2024, he assured that “the first half of the year has been very hard for all of Argentina. Mendoza is no exception. Mainly, all economic policy has focused on the macroeconomy, on the fiscal surplus , in the public accounts. But later, when you look at what is happening in the real economy, call it consumption levels, investment levels and employment and salary levels, in general, the Government expects that. “If all of this is unblocked from the Base Law, it could be like a kind of beginning of economic recovery, but the outlook for the second semester does not differ much from what happened in the first,” the economist highlighted.
Regarding the outlook for the second semester, Aroma assured that “they do not differ much from what happened in the first. The same International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its last report indicated this to the Government and, for example, for Argentina it had planned a drop of 2.5% of the economy’s product and brought it to 3.5% That is worrying because the famous “V” rebound is not clear, not because of a magical issue that is not seen or seen, no. There are conditions to say, this is going to be the basis of growth,” he analyzed.
This recession leaves the costs visible, the analyst explained: “There are items that have been greatly affected according to data from the SIPA (Argentine Integrated Pension System). The contributions paid and contributions show that the construction sector has had a drop of 60 %, almost 130,000 registered private jobs that have been lost. It is a very affected sector. Then, there are other sectors that have suffered a lot, such as industry and then commerce.
Asked if employment in Mendoza will grow in the coming months, Aroma explained that “what is estimated by employers is that they do not see a short-term outlook of hiring, but of layoffs. Basically because the economy “It is still in recession, it continues to fall very sharply and there is still no take-off. So if that does not happen, they are not waiting to make new hires, at least that is what the surveys of the Mendoza businessmen themselves have indicated.”
The director of CEFI Mendoza commented that the Government of Mendoza has focused “on the mining issue” to reactivate the economy. “All the chips are being bet there. I think we have to be a little more cautious with that, but well, if the Government has decided something it will be looking at in that sense. I have always made a proposal in Mendoza, and that is that it has a level of dynamics and growth lower than the provinces that are similar like Santa Fe and Córdoba. In Mendoza you don’t have credit, there are tools that are very insignificant compared to what the other provinces have.”
Finally, he explained that regarding salaries, according to the latest reports, the province “in public salaries is among the last three and in private salaries among the last five.”
