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He dollar It closed its price on Friday lower, registering $4,136.50. This translates into $30.5 less compared to Thursday’s close, as well as a change of -0.73%.
The Representative Market Rate (TRM) remains at $4,158.10.
In recent weeks, the dollar has remained at the $4,100 threshold, which represents a significant rise considering that for the majority of the current year it was in the $3,800 and $3,900 range.
Various analysts agree that the current price of the dollar does more justice to the macroeconomic panorama experienced in the country and the region. Part of this increase is due to the noise generated in Mexico by the election of its new president, as well as the package of reforms that are about to be discussed.
There are also the high interest rates, which remain in the United States, as well as the imbalance they represent compared to Colombian rates, which continue on their path of cuts.
At the time it also had an impact on the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework published by the Ministry of Finance, as well as the request to Congress to increase the debt quota. So far, although the nation’s fiscal picture remains complex, the decisions made by the Government have been considered responsible, to the extent that the fiscal rule has been respected.
However, it should be noted that recently the risk rating agency Moody’s Colombia’s credit rating was lowered, putting at risk the loss of its investment grade, which is something that has already happened with Fitch & Ratings and Standard & Poors.
The latter would have a considerable impact, to the extent that uncertainty increases in advancing investments in Colombia, as well as an eventual escalation in interest rates on loans requested by the nation.
Even with all this, the bulk of the future of the dollar in the country depends on the decision made by the United States Federal Reserve on the interest rate, since if the reduction would encourage investment and, therefore, the possibilities of more dollars arrive in the country (which would translate into a cheaper currency).
However, this first record is not expected to occur until August or December of this year, while other analysts estimate that this reduction will not occur until next year.
The truth is that if the United States wants to avoid recession, it must aim for a reduction in interest rates and thus contribute to the reactivation of its economy.
Due to this panorama, many of the analysts consulted by this medium consider that the dollar in the coming weeks will continue to move above $4,100, a threshold at which it has achieved new stability.
