(CNN) — The story of the last 27 months since Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine has been one of the breaking down of taboos. After repelling Russia’s initial march on Kyiv, Ukraine has asked its Western allies for increasing support: first ammunition, then tanks, then cluster munitions, then fighter jets.
On each occasion, the West has debated whether or not to grant Kyiv’s latest request, fearing escalation and a possible Russian response. On all occasions the taboo has been broken, and nothing has happened. What seemed out of place one week had become banal the next.
But the rhythm of deliberation and delay has been difficult to break. Despite obtaining more weapons from the United States last month, Ukraine has not been able to use them at will. When Moscow launched its surprise assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region this month, Washington prohibited Kyiv from using American weapons to attack targets inside Russia.
This also fell apart. This week, President Joe Biden gave Ukraine permission to carry out limited strikes with US weapons on Russian territory around Kharkiv, after several European nations lifted restrictions on the use of weapons they have delivered to Kyiv.
“In recent weeks, Ukraine has come to us and asked for permission to use the weapons provided to it to defend itself against this aggression” near the city of Kharkiv, “including against Russian forces massing on the Russian side of the border,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared on Friday during a visit to Prague, the Czech capital. He confirmed that Biden had approved Ukraine’s request.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the decision as a “step forward” that will help his forces defend the besieged Kharkiv region.
Workers search through the remains of a store destroyed by a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 26, 2024. Credit: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
Although the decision may mark a new phase of the war, analysts wonder whether the new freedoms will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s ability to repel the Russian invasion.
Some are optimistic. This month, calls for the United States to lift restrictions have grown more desperate, as Russia continues to bombard the city of Kharkiv with missiles and gain ground elsewhere in the region.
In an op-ed on CNN, Adam Kinzinger and Ben Hodges described the strange effect of the American taboo: “We have heard Ukrainian soldiers repeatedly tell stories of Russian columns attacking, being repelled, and retreating to safe Russian territory to regroup, take a hot food, plan and attack again.”
“Ukraine cannot win if the Russians can attack civilian targets with impunity and call ‘time out’ on their own territory,” they wrote, urging Biden to call out the bluff of his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
But military analysts have tempered expectations, in part because the United States remains adamant about not allowing Ukraine to use the most formidable ammunition it has been given to fire on Russia: the long-range missiles known as ATACMS that can hit targets at 300 kilometers (almost 200 miles) away.
Instead, Ukraine can only use shorter-range missiles known as GMLRS, which have a range of about 70 kilometers (about 40 miles).
Firefighters work at a hardware store attacked by Russian air missiles in Kharkiv, May 25, 2024. Credit: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, told CNN that the policy change will “mitigate” the Russian offensive in Kharkiv, but still “preserves most of Russia’s sanctuary space.”
“Policy continues to protect Russia’s operational and deep rear sufficiently that this change near Kharkiv Oblast is insufficient to cause a turning point in the war. Ukraine especially needs the ability to attack deep rear areas to defeat Russian ground and air threats, as many Russian airfields supporting attacks on Ukrainian cities are outside the permitted range of GMLRS,” he said.
Elderly Ukrainians wait to be evacuated from the city of Vovchansk in the face of the Russian advance in the Kharkiv region, May 20, 2024. Credit: Narciso Contreras/Anadolu/Getty Images
Franz-Stefan Gady, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN that the GMLRS cross-border attacks will allow Ukraine to “attack some Russian assembly areas, command and control centers, as well as supply depots. It will not stop but it will complicate Russian military operations against Kharkiv”.
“We must be realistic about what to expect from this policy change, as the Russian armed forces have already adapted to the introduction of ground-based precision fires,” he said.
Mathieu Boulegue, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the policy change would allow Ukraine “to be more efficient in repelling attacks and retreating preemptively.”
“It is not a game changer, per se. It is a complement, a steroid, an additional reinforcement for Ukraine to defend itself,” he said.
The red lines blur
The US joins the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other countries in lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of the weapons it receives.
Before Biden gave the green light, Putin had issued veiled nuclear threats to countries considering allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with its weapons. He warned that the measure could have “serious consequences,” especially for “small, densely populated countries.”
In addition to issuing nuclear threats, Putin also signaled earlier this month that he was open to peace talks.
“All these false narratives were deliberately intended to dissuade Western decision-makers from allowing Ukraine to pre-empt Russia’s attack on the city of Kharkiv,” Stepanenko said.
Although the removal of this taboo appears to mark a new chapter in the war, Russia has previously suffered Ukrainian attacks with Western weapons on territory it considers its own.
Ukraine has frequently attacked occupied Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, using “Storm Shadow” missiles provided by the United Kingdom.
Ukraine also launched attacks on Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, as it attempts to liberate Russian-occupied regions in the first weeks of the full invasion.
In both cases, Russia had warned Ukraine and its Western allies not to cross its red line. In both cases, Ukraine and its Western allies ignored the warning.
“The Kremlin already considers the attacks on occupied Crimea and the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as ‘attacks on Russia,’ but the reality is that there is little Russia can do to continue escalating its war in Ukraine without incurring at great risks,” Stepanenko said.
— CNN’s Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Niamh Kennedy and Anna Chernova contributed to this report.
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