the impact it will have on the US elections

After more than four weeks listening to arguments for and against, Last Thursday the jury found Trump guilty of all 34 charges that prosecutor Alvin Braggs raised a little over a year ago.

In almost record time – nine hours deliberating – the group of New Yorkers chosen by both parties to define Trump’s fate not only determined that, indeed, there was an alteration of the accounting records to hide the payments, but that the former president did it to amortize potential damage to his aspirations presidential.
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(You may be interested in: Can Donald Trump go to prison? Can he still be president of the United States? Questions and answers about the future of the former president)

Which, under state laws, is a violation of the rules that govern electoral campaigns and a criminal offense that contemplates prison as a possible sanction.

What will be the specific punishment? It is something that has now been left in the hands of Juan Merchán, the Colombian judge who led the process and who He set the reading of the sentence for next July 11.

Although the crimes that are accused of the former president contemplate a penalty ranging between one year and four months in prison, the minimum, up to four years as the maximum sentence, Most likely, Merchán will opt for a “parole” scheme taking into account Trump’s age (77 years old) and the absence of criminal records.
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​This in practice translates into a fine, the threat of a higher penalty if the crime is committed again. and the surveillance of an agent with whom you will have to coordinate your departures from the state.

Nothing, of course – not even a prison sentence – will prevent Trump from continuing with the electoral campaign, be elected as the nominee of his party – something that will happen a few days after Merchán’s decision during the Republican National Convention – or that he can hold the presidency if he wins the elections on November 5.

This is because the Constitution of the United States, The only thing required to reach the Oval Office is that the candidate be over 35 years old, was born in US territory and has been living in the country for at least 14 years.

As expected, just one day after hearing the verdict, the former president appealed the jury’s decision to a higher court based on numerous arguments.
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(Also: What does Donald Trump have against the Colombian judge who has his conviction in his hands? ‘Look where he comes from’)

Among them, he cited: “They did not allow us to bring witnesses, they did not allow us to speak, they did not allow us to do anything.” “The judge was a tyrant,” Trump concluded in reference to Merchán. “We are going to appeal this scam,” he added.

Trump took advantage of Friday’s intervention to remind Americans that he continues to lead the presidential polls because, according to him, the people understand that the trial in which he was found guilty was “a rigged trial.”

In that case, depending on what that court decides, The sentence could be postponed until the court makes a substantive decision, which could take months and is not expected to occur before the scheduled election date.

That is to say, the elections – and the entire final stretch of this campaign – will take place under a black background that for now seems irreversible.

The million dollar question – that everyone asks – is What effect, if any, will the jury’s decision have on the outcome of the contest? against President Joe Biden.

As Trump pointed out, the polls slightly favor him, especially in the so-called group of “swing” states that, in a race as polarized as the one that is coming up, are the ones that will tip the balance in favor of one of the opponents. But, Those same polls also pointed to a change in the perception of the electorate if Trump were found guilty.

An ABC-Ipsos sample from a month ago indicated that at least 20 percent of Republicans would reconsider in that scenario. Another four percent would definitely vote against him. In the case of independents, almost a third of them would turn their backs on him.
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(You can read: ‘The judge was a tyrant’: Donald Trump announces that he will appeal the verdict against him based on numerous arguments)

In the Marquette University survey, Trump went from winning Biden by four points to losing by the same four points when voters were asked the question of his guilt.

In other words, Most polls show that the conviction would have a slight effect on the elections. And given that these are likely to be resolved by very narrow margins, the outcome in New York could be fatal for Trump’s aspirations to return to the White House.

However, as Harvard University professor Steven Levitsky says, in the hyper-politicized world in which the United States currently gravitates, even such a conviction cannot predict the outcome.

“At any other time in history this development would be a fatal blow to any candidate. But we are living in an era in which Trump has absolute control of the entire Republican Party that has decided to accompany him in his frontal attack against a judicial system that he accuses of being biased against him,” says Levitsky.
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(In other news: Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden among young voters in the United States, according to a poll)

Something similar to what he did with his defeat in the 2020 elections and subsequent assault against the electoral system.

Although he defeated Biden by more than 8 million votes and beat him in the Electoral College count, which is the one who chooses the president, almost 80 percent of the Republican Party was convinced – without any proof – that The elections were stolen from Trump.

The former president, in fact, has made it clear that he plans to use the same delegitimization strategy that he used four years ago, but now directed against the judicial system.

“Every time a politician is accused of something, he shouts that it is a witch hunt orchestrated by his opponents. What is notable here is that the entire Republican Party is marching in unison, along with the right-wing media, claiming that the legal process has been weaponized and therefore eroding public trust in one of the most vital for democracy,” says Levitsky.

In other words, argues political consultant Alex Constant: “Trump has convinced all Republicans that this has been a rigged process. “It’s not even about whether he is innocent or not, but about eroding the credibility of the system and using it to his advantage for electoral purposes.”

One of the theories behind the New York ruling is that the conviction would end up benefiting him Well, it further inflames his followers and could incline many undecided people who have begun to distrust the system.

The opposite thesis, and one that the Biden administration is betting on, is that voters – or at least a majority of them – will see this as a new effort by Trump to destroy institutions and evade justice.

“What this proves is that no one is outside the law. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box,” said Michael Tyler, communications director for the Biden campaign, commenting on the decision.

A line similar to that adopted by the New York Times editorial when commenting on the news: “Trump has tried to sabotage the elections and the justice system (fundamental to American democracy) every time he has come to the conclusion that he cannot They favor it. For now, the institutions have proven to be strong enough to withstand his attacks,” noted the American newspaper.

The New York Times points out that the jurors have issued their verdict, as will voters in November, and warns that for the Republic to survive, “all of us (including Trump) must respect both, regardless of the result,” anticipating the difficult horizon that lies ahead for the country.

Of course, Five months before the elections, there is still a lot that can change. Although the narrative of judicial persecution versus Trump’s anti-democratic instincts will persist during this final stretch of the race, analysts predict that will be just one among the plethora of issues that will weigh on Americans’ decision who, of course, see the state of the economy as a fundamental point.

But also others of great importance such as the conflict in the Middle East, women’s reproductive rights and any other surprise that usually arises at the last minute.

However, none of these topics are able to hide what happened this week when Donald Trump became the first president in US history to be convicted of a criminal offense. What remains to be determined is whether, despite this, Americans want him back in the White House.