Does the arrival of a Russian nuclear submarine off the coast of Cuba represent a risk of escalation for Latin America?

When the clock barely read 7:47 in the morning in Cuba This June 12, a group of fishermen, a crowd of Russian tourists and several Cuban and Moscow officials waited on the boardwalk, on the traditional promenade of Havana, the arrival of a Russian detachment made up of four vessels, including a modern frigate and a nuclear-powered submarine.

(Read here: In photos: Russian Navy flotilla arrives in Cuba, what does this move by Vladimir Putin include and what does it imply?)

The expectation that was generated on the island is due to the fact that It has been at least five years since Cubans saw a Russian deployment of this magnitude on their coasts. In fact, in the last decade, similar maneuvers have only occurred on two other occasions (in 2019 and 2013). However, None of them were escorted by a nuclear submarine, which has generated great expectations inside and outside Cuba due to its geopolitical symbolism.

The analysts consulted by this newspaper – both in Washington and in Havana – agree that The Russian maneuvers in Cuba do not represent a risk of escalation for Latin America, but they do reflect a symbolic “game” with which Moscow wants to send a clear message to Washington and demonstrate the importance that relations with Havana continue to have for Moscow by passing its fleet a few kilometers from South Florida.

According to the criteria of

Flotilla of the Russian Navy contrasts with the old cars that travel in Cuba.

Photo:Eliana Aponte. TIME

This visit has several purposes: the strengthening of diplomatic and military ties, cultural exchange and exchange of technical cooperation. Russian sailors and their counterparts will share experiences and knowledge in navigation and maritime safety. In addition, it has a symbolism of friendship. Represent the solidarity between both nationalities.

“At a critical moment in its war against Ukraine, Russia will seek to demonstrate its ability to project power in the neighborhood of its main adversary. If the United States, through Ukraine, is on the border of Russian territory, Putin wants to show its strength and reaffirm its historic alliance with Cuba, just 90 miles (145 kilometers) south of Florida. It is a well-known game. Classic provocation,” Michael Shifter, associate professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University, explained to EL TIEMPO.

The first boat to pass through the narrow entrance to the bay of the Cuban capital, in front of Old Havana, It was the oil tanker Pashin. Then the rescue tug passed Nikolai Chike. He arrived around 9 in the morning. the Gorshkov frigate, one of the most modern in the Russian army, which fired 21 salutes. One hour later, the Kazan submarine It entered the bay showing a part of its hump and turret on the surface of the sea, carrying a Cuban flag. On the boardwalk, Russian tourists celebrated the entry of each ship shouting “Russia, Russia!”, according to the accounts of correspondents present in Cuba.

Boatmen and fishermen observe the arrival of the Russian ship to the island.

Photo:Eliana Aponte. TIME

What is the purpose of Russia’s naval maneuvers in Cuba?

“This visit has several purposes: the strengthening of diplomatic and military ties, cultural exchange and exchange of technical cooperation. Russian sailors and their counterparts will share experiences and knowledge in navigation and maritime safety. In addition, it has a symbolism of friendship. Represent the solidarity between both nationalities. This was very common during the time of the Soviet Union and it is something that has continued in this relationship with the Russian Federation,” Mario Padilla, senior professor and researcher on Russian issues at the International Policy Research Center, explained to this newspaper. (CIPI), from Cuba.

This is an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to warn his enemies of his power, but it does not pose a major threat. While ties between Russia and Cuba are growing, it is highly unlikely that attacks against the United States will be launched from the island.

The Ministry of the Cuban Armed Forces (Minfar) characterized the visit as protocol and stated, anticipating doubts, that “none of the ships are carrying nuclear weapons” and stressed that the scale “does not represent a threat to the region.”

Nevertheless, The maneuvers did have a reaction in the United States.

He Miami Herald assures that, although Joe Biden’s administration had said that it was not concerned about Russian activity in the area, it authorized the deployment of three powerful warships and an underwater reconnaissance plane in the region.

As US officials explained to that newspaper, the US Navy even assured that the Russian vessels sailed less than 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the coast of South Florida. For now, It is known that the Russian fleet will be in Cuba until June 17 and Washington hopes that the flotilla will transit the Western Hemisphere and also dock in Venezuela.

Russian Navy Flotilla in Cuba.

Photo:Eliana Aponte. TIME

“This is an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to warn his enemies of his power, but it does not pose a major threat. While ties between Russia and Cuba are growing, it is highly unlikely that attacks against the United States will be launched from the island. The strategic value of Cuba for the Russian army is considerable and, through financial and technical support, Russia will continue to take advantage of the strategic value of the island, maintaining tensions,” said Joe Beckford, an analyst at Control Risks.

In any case, Russia’s recent maneuvers in Cuba are interesting in light of the political relationship between these two old Cold War allies.a friendship that was revitalized since November 2022, when Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel met in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, who considers the relationship with the island “strategic.”

Since this rapprochement began, various official and business delegations have traveled to both countries to promote investment projects.

“Unlike 1962, the most dangerous moment of the Cold War with the Cuban missile crisis, the main scene of tensions between the United States and Russia today is in Europe due to the war in Ukraine,” Shifter pointed out.

CARLOS JOSÉ REYES GARCÍA – INTERNATIONAL DEPUTY EDITOR – EL TIEMPO

 
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