He Brazilian Real It seems to get out of its lethargy of weakness and holds a important 10% appreciation so far from 2025a dynamic that has Effect also on Argentinagiven the intense commercial exchange with the neighboring country and also the tourist flow that is reflected in the service account deficit.
Far away was the historical record of the dollar in Brazil, in a historical maximum of 6.75 reais in December 2024. In four months the dollar fell 15%, to 5.72 reais, which implies an appreciation of the real of 18 percent.
So far from 2025, the Real Brazilian records a 10% appreciation compared to the dollar, from the exchange rate of 6.30 per unit of the closing of last year.
The main reason for the bounce of the Brazilian currency, which returned to its higher level since Julywas the process of Raise of the monetary policy rate implemented by the Brazilian Central Bank. The entity initiated a tightening cycle in September and since then raised the 375 basic points, to the 14.25% per year, about nine points above inflation. The authorities said they foresee another rise in their next May meeting, at a time when inflation is very over the 3 percent target.
The Up of the Real has a positive effect for Argentinapromptly because it helps Moderate the deficit Historical with Brazil for the exchange of goods and tourism services, precisely at a time when the Argentine economy is going through a period of rapid exchange rate appreciation, even with the partial elimination of controls or “stocks” as of April 14.
It is enough to remember that the Negative balance with the main commercial partner Argentina chained a series of eight consecutive months. In March it was USD 580 million, with Argentine exports that fell 17.5% year -on -year -a nine -month growth cycle was broken -and imports that increased 43.3%, in a context of greater opening, with impulse of the automotive sector.
The commercial balance with Brazil in the first quarter of 2025 was negative in USD 1,291 millionagainst a deficit of only USD 24 million in the same period of 2024.
As for services, Brazil received an wave of broadly tourism from Argentina Last summer. The Argentine Central Bank reported a tourism deficit of more than USD 2 billion in the first 2025 two -month period, by accounting for all destinations, 345% more than in the same period of 2024.
Although Argentina appreciates the weight similar to what Brazil does with its real, the Bilateral real exchange rate that measures the bcra eIn 2025, an improvement of five points For Argentina -now in the 76.8 points, from the 71.8 points of the closure of 2024 -although it is still below the theoretical level of equilibrium -in the 100 points.
However, the firm rise in rates in Brazil can be harmful to Argentina, to the extent that an economic slowdown in the neighboring country represses the demand for imported products. The IMF estimated that Brazil will grow 2% in both 2025 and 2026which means a strong deceleration After registering an economic expansion of 3.4% last year. In contrast, the agency projected that the Argentina’s GDP will grow 5.5% this yearfrom a 1.7% contraction in 2024.
He Central Bank of Brazil Consider that one moderation of economic activity It is an indication that its restrictive monetary policy is working, said its director on Wednesday, Nilton Davidwhile stressing that the objective was to control inflation. In this regard, the IMF predicted for Brazil an increase in inflation, with a rise in prices of 5.3% in 2025, higher than 4.83% of last year.
In his speech at an act organized by JP MorganDavid, director of monetary policy of the institution, said that the activity was one of the indicators that could reflect the efficacy of monetary policy.
David said that the fees setting committee is widely agreed that monetary policy is in contractive field, although it chooses to maintain its course.
The Central Bank of Brazil focuses on reducing inflation and ensures that it has no exchange rate objectives
The High global uncertainty He is doing the work of the bank “more difficult than usual” and complicated to predetermine a path of action, said David, adding that “we will learn on the march.”
He also said that any Founder of the world economy It would have a generalized effect, but it would be useful for Brazil to place the activity below its potential.
Asked about the intervention in the currency marketHe argued that it is a tool available at a time when the market is dysfunctional, but stressed that the Brazilian Central Bank It has no exchange rate objectives. “The optimal level of reservations (of dollars) is subject to debate,” he said.
