The global context favors Brazil
Brazil has established itself in recent years as a competitive supplier of pork. This competitiveness has allowed the country to expand its International presence, even in the face of the uncertainties of global trade.
Brazil is expected to win market share in countries more sensitive to the price, as rates and health issues change trade dynamics in 2025: China imposed retaliation tariffs on Canada and the United States, and opened an anti -dumping investigation against the European Union, whose conclusion is planned for June. In addition, African swine plague shoots continue to affect production in regions such as Europe, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea, which tends to increase import demand.
Market diversification
In 2020 and 2021, China came to represent 55 % of Brazilian pork exports for a critical period of PPA outbreaks in the Asian country. In 2024, that participation fell to 18 %, a reflection of a weaker demand due to the recovery of Chinese internal production and economic deceleration.
Despite the fall, Brazil has compensated losses with access to 17 new markets in 2024, reaching more than 100 destinations in total. They highlighted the shipments to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina and the Dominican Republic. The increase of almost 20 % of exports to markets outside the five main destinations demonstrates Brazil’s capacity to quickly adapt to changes in international trade, which will be essential to sustain growth in 2025 (Figure 1).
International competitiveness
Although export prices increased by 2024, Brazilian pork continues to offer a significant discount compared to other large exporters. This strategically positions the country to conquer markets such as Japan, planned as the second largest world importer in 2025, only behind Mexico.
In 2024, due to the depreciation of currency and internal inflation, Japan increased purchases of frozen meat and reduced imports of fresh or refrigerated meat, favoring exporters like Brazil. Brazilian pork, for sanitary limitations, can only be sold to Japan in a frozen way, which aligns supply and demand. The Brazilian market share in Japan grew almost 4 %.
Other major importers are expected to also prioritize frozen products due to economic pressure, which reinforces the growth potential of Brazilian exports.
Perspectives
Brazil’s advance in 2025 will depend on the maintenance of low production costs and the capacity to access new markets, especially in a global commercial instability scenario.
Despite the projected expansion, the United States is expected to continue leading the world ranking of pork exporters, thanks to the quality and reliability of the US product.
May 7, 2025/333 Brazil Editorial with USDA-USA data.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
