Bloomberg — The annual inflation of Mexico unexpectedly rose in the first two weeks of Aprilwhile remained within the objective range of Banco de México (Banxico), before the monetary policy decision next month.
See more: Economic brake will contract -0.8% investment in Mexico by 2025: Citi chief economist
Annual inflation accelerated to 3.96%, above the average estimate of 3.85% Of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg and also the previous figure of 3.93%, the INEGI reported Thursday.
The underlying inflationwhich excludes volatile elements such as food and fuel, increased to 3.9% from 3.72% in the end of March.
The central Bank aims at 3%inflation, with a tolerance range of more or less a percentage point. Banxico has made two consecutive cuts of the types of 50 basic points, after four consecutive reductions of a quarter quarterwith a downward trend of inflation since mid -2024.
The reduction of public spending this year, together with the rapid changes in American commercial policy, have hurt Mexico’s growth prospects.
It is widely expected that the central bankers continue to reduce the costs of indebtedness at their next May 15 meetingand the 36 analysts surveyed by Citi expect a third consecutive cut of 50 basic points, which would reduce the official interest rate to 8.5%.
-The tariff policies of US President Donald Trump have not so far affected most Mexican exports, although the second economy of Latin America still faces tariffs on their exports of car, steel and aluminum that could further weigh more on the manufacturing basis of the nation.
Some exporters felt relieved when at the beginning of April Trump imposed a generalized tariff on most US business partners, but kept Mexico and Canada out of his list.
The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has said she wants to reach an agreement with Trump, But he did not succeed in a phone call he had with him last week.
In the most recent survey of the Citi Research Unit, Analysts predict that Mexico’s inflation will end 2025 by 3.78% and 2026 in 3.79%.
Analysts reduced their GDP growth forecast by 2025 to 0.2%, below the estimates of both the Central Bank and the Government.
-With the collaboration of Rafael Gayol, Robert Jameson and Giovanna Serafim.
Read more at Bloomberg.com.
