A new analysis of the Stanford University warns about the possibility that infectious diseases previously eliminated, such as rubellathe poliomyelitis and the diphtheriathey can appear again in USA. This study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Associationmodeled different scenarios to understand the impact of the decrease in Children’s Vaccination Rates.
During the evaluation, the researchers used Recent vaccination state rates and projected their effects on a period of 25 years. Considered factors such as Vaccine efficacythe Population demographyhe risk import risk and the basic reproduction number of each pathogen. The results showed that, although measles presents the greatest risk of restoration, the other three diseases could also resurface under certain conditions.
In the case of the rubellathe model indicated that it would have a 81% probability to turn endemic If vaccination rates decrease approximately one 35%. For the poliomyelitisa 50% probability of restoration in a scenario of vaccination reduction of the 40%. For its part, the diphtheria It showed to be the less likely disease of reappearing, requiring an even greater fall in the immunization rates to represent a significant risk.
Based on current figures, rubella, polio y diphtheria They are not considered Endemic in the United Statesand the cases that are generally linked to International trips. However, foci of Low vaccination coverageas observed in some specific communitiesThey could facilitate more intense outbreaks of the expected.
Nathan lodoctor and co -author of the study, affirmed that “any of these diseases, in the right conditions, could reappear.” This warning highlights the Importance of maintaining high vaccination levels to avoid restoration of Highly contagious infections and dangerous for public health.
Likewise, an important aspect of the analysis is your validation through simulations compared to real data for the last five yearswhich coincided widely. This procedure strengthened the reliability of findings and allowed to identify Texas like the State with Greater risk of reappearance of measleswhich could also reflect similar risks for other diseases if vaccination coverage They continue to descend.
Although the model did not consider local variations within the states nor the possible Increased vaccination after shootsthe results underline a worrying panorama. In communities where vaccination is lowthe outbreaks could be more serious and extended.
In this way, the Stanford study warns that Maintain vaccination coverage It is crucial to avoid the return of previously controlled diseases. Rubella, poliomyelitis y diphtheria They remain under control thanks to the efforts of vaccinationbut one sustained relaxation In these efforts it could reverse decades of advances in public health.
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