Despite a good start, the Merval Index He closed with falls this Wednesday and dropped 0.3%, despite the best financial climate on Wall Street and the new statements of the United States Department of the Treasury. As transcended, the White House would be willing to offer the Argentine government a direct credit line in case of International financial shock.
Within the leading panel, the casualties of Edenor (-3.5%), Metrogas (-3.5%), Commercial Commercial Society (-2.2%), North Gas Transporter (-2.1%) and Telecom Argentina (-2%).
In tune with the local market, the ADRs of Argentine companies that quote on Wall Street also closed with a mixed day. Among the greatest advances they stood out Globant (+5.4%), free market (+3%), black hill (+2.1%), corporation America (+1.8%) and ternium (+1.8%); And among the casualties, Edenor (-6.2%), Telecom Argentina (-2.7%), Banco Supervielle (-2.6%), Banco Macro (-2.1%) and BBVA (-2%).
In the fixed income segment, the sovereign bonds in dollars closed with a majority of increases. The AE38D led the increases with an advance of 1.1%, followed by Global 35, which earned 1%. On the other hand, the titles in pesos adjusted by CER closed in negative terrain, with decreases of up to 0.1%, headed by the TX26. In this context, the country risk backed 713 basic points.
As a key fact for investors, the treasure tend today five instruments to Fixed rate in pesos (S15G5, S12S5, T17O5, T30E6 and T17E7), two zero coupon bonds (Tzxo5 and Tzxm7), and the dollar Linked D16E6. On this day, maturities face around $ 7.45 billion, mainly concentrated in the S28A5 LECAP. It is also the first bidding since January 15 in which the most short fixed rate instrument exceeds 100 days.
A regime change held by markets
Since Delphos Investment, they stressed that the market reacted with optimism in the face of the change of economic regime promoted by the government. This transition was valued by investors, both at the local and international level, which was reflected in the recovery of the Bonds in pesos and sovereign titles in dollars. The firmness with which the reforms were faced and the speed in obtaining visible results were key to generate trust.
Bróker specialists explained that, although the agreement with the International Monetary Fund It was an important factor, concrete macroeconomic advances played an even more decisive role in this change of perception. Among them, they highlighted the reduction of inflation and the fiscal turn towards the surplus, which allowed to cement a new stage for the local economy.
The agreement with the IMF served as a final piece that allowed to order the balance of the Banco Central, A critical step to consolidate the process. However, analysts stressed that this achievement would not have been possible without the overcomplication of goals derived from the monetary and fiscal anchor. These policies not only facilitated the initial record disbursement of 75%, but also enabled a more predictable and favorable scenario.
For Delphos, the initial success of this economic program was reflected in the significant inflation drop – From extreme levels of 211% – and in the reversal of the primary fiscal deficit, which went to surplus in just one month of management. These advances were accompanied by an economic recovery that is already perceived in the activity data, such as EMAE, which showed a monthly acceleration of 0.8%, and an interannual growth of 5.7%.
IMF projections and a new relative position
The experts of the stock market also analyzed the Recent IMF reviews, They adjusted their projections for Argentina on the rise. This change of perspective occurred not only compared to previous reports of the same organism, but also in front of countries with similar credit conditions. In this way, Argentina went on to occupy an outstanding position within its comparable group.
As they explained, The Argentine Sovereign Curve – even with CCC rating – it shows yields of 11.2% and a country risk of 720 points. Although these values are above the minimum of 560 points registered in January, they are distanced from other comparable countries such as Ecuador or Senegal, whose bonds surrender 16.4% and 14.6% respectively.
-The Delphos report indicates that, currently, Argentina approaches more to the yields of countries with Best rating, as the B-, among them Pakistan, Egypt and Nigeria. These have average yields around 10%, which positions Argentina as a natural candidate to close that gap if the path of economic consolidation continues.
In this sense, they stressed that Pakistan —CCC Fitch from CCC A B-is the closest country in terms of comparison. Although both share an approach to fiscal discipline and the fight against inflation, broker specialists pointed out that Argentina exhibits better macroeconomic conditions on several key fronts.
Solid Macroeconomic Growth Perspectives and Fundamentals
For Delphos, the IMF growth projections They reinforce the idea that Argentina has begun to travel a new path. With an expansion estimate of 5.5%by 2025, the country is positioned as the highest growth within the comparable group, well above the general average, which is around 3%, and Pakistan, which is expected to grow only 2.6%.
Another element highlighted by analysts is the improvement in the external balance. The recapitalization of the Central Bank from the agreement with the IMF allowed to increase international reserves, which reduces the country’s vulnerability to possible external shocks. This point takes on special relevance to cases such as Pakistan, whose reservations are located at USD 13 billion, with debt maturities of US $30 billion in the short and medium term.
In contrast, Argentina faces minors financial commitments In the short term, which gives you an additional margin to continue applying consistent policies without immediate external pressures. This solidity is transformed into a key asset to sustain projected economic growth.
Also, although the inflation Projected by 2025 remains high compared to their peers – having 20% -, from thephos noted that this figure must be read in context. It represents a significant decrease from the extreme levels of 2023 and, in relative terms, is only surpassed by Nigeria. In addition, Argentina is the only country in the group that presents financial surplus, which could contribute to a sustained reduction in inflation in the medium term.
What happens in the world markets
Las Actions in Wall Street They were negotiated on Thursday, led by the rebound of large technology, while investors processed contradictory messages by President Donald Trump and his economic team regarding tariff policy with China.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index advanced 1.23%, the S&P 500 won 2.03%and the Nasdaq Composite – with a strong presence of the technological sector – climbed 2.7%.
With this performance, the S&P 500 It accumulates an advance of more than 4% in the last two days, mainly driven by expectations of a distension in the commercial front. On Wednesday, the markets celebrated versions about a possible reduction of tariffs to Chinese products, although the enthusiasm was moderated after statements by the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Battt, who clarified that “there was no unilateral offer of the president to dispute” the dispute with China.
For its part, China He remained firm this Thursday in the face of Washington’s change, demanding the total uprising of current tariffs and denying the existence of formal conversations between the two countries.
Meanwhile, the government approach of Trump Towards other key tariffs showed signs of growing confusion. Sources close to the White House indicated that it is evaluated to exempt some automotive from the highest tariffs, but, in parallel, Trump himself said from the Oval Hall that the 25% tariff could increase to the imported cars from Canada. In addition, the Administration ordered an investigation into truck imports, which could open the door to new tariff measures on that sector.
