This Saturday is celebrating a year since Puig starred in the traditional touch of bell, the first exit to the hero in Spain since 2022. The euphoria that generated the operation – the greatest placement since Aena’s in 2015 – contrasts with the poor stock market performance of the company: its shares have fallen 30.6% and says goodbye to 17 euros.
Despite concluding the first day without changes (the shares closed at 24.5 euros of the debut) Puig managed to enter the IBEX 35 in record time. 48 sessions were enough for the Technical Advisory Committee (CAT) to choose it to be part of the index. Only Bankia did it faster: it took 37 sessions before entering the selective after its debut.
Puig’s first year in the parquet has not been a path of Rosas. The difficulties of the luxury sector, the withdrawal of some makeup lots due to problems with certain products and, more recently, the tariff threat, have prevented the firm from recovering the departure price. After closing 2024 with a 27.2%decrease, so far from 2025 loses another 4.7%, in line with the 6.2%decline in the luxury sector in Europe. The coming scenario is no more favorable: the foreseeable economic slowdown complicates the perspectives and keeps the analysis houses divided, although the results of the first quarter exceeded the forecasts.
Citi analysts applaud the 7.5% growth experienced by income. “They exceeded estimates. The strong growth of the fragrance and fashion division has largely compensated for the contraction of the makeup business,” they say. The experts of the American entity consider that the figures of the start of the year are solid enough and believe that the impact that the exchange rate may violate in their accounts has already been put in price.
Like great names of Ibex 35 such as Iberdrola, Ferrovial or ACS, the cosmetic company is a quoted harmed by the weakness of the dollar because the American is its main market. The revaluation of the euro, and consequent fall of the green ticket, reduces the competitiveness of its products and decreases the value in euros of the income generated outside the euro zone. In spite of this cloud on the horizon, from Citi they reiterate the purchase council and set the 23 euros as target price. That is, they give it a potential of 35.3%.
Something more pessimistic shows Bank of America analysts. The entity, who participated in the sale of shares during placement, believes that the weakness of the dollar can continue to harm him in the coming months. Although the president of the company said that the diversification of the cosmetic firm is deep enough to overcome the tariff threat and the fall of the green ticket (host in 10 countries), in Bank of America reduce the benefit before taxes and interest by 2-3% for the next two years. This cut in the forecasts is also transferred to the assessment. Although analysts reiterate the board to buy, they cut the target price at 20 euros, below the 23.6 euros established by Bloomberg’s consensus.
Bankinter analysts, who in February included the firm in their preferred values portfolio believe that the growth objectives of between 6-8% are ambitious in an environment of economic deceleration and deterioration of confidence as the one drawn by the main international organizations. Since Trump declared war to the world economic order and announced the highest tariffs since the great depression, the IMF, the OECD and the central banks have reviewed the growth forecasts. “The business model, very concentrated in the perfume division, is more vulnerable than that of more diversified cosmetic groups such as L’Oréal, leader of the sector. Although the contribution multiples are attractive (the company quotes with a 20%discount) we do not see an improvement of the feeling and catalysts for a sustained recovery of the quotation,” they highlight.
This caution contrasts with the enthusiasm that Puig awakens for GVC Gaesco. The firm’s experts believe that the fall that has been accumulating the actions since the beginning of the year already reflects the fears of the market on the group’s ability to achieve their objectives. “We believe that Puig should continue surpassing competitors thanks to the attractiveness of their brand portfolio, which is naturally exposed to the most buoyant categories and segments,” they emphasize. In addition to the high -end portfolio, the most resistant to the worsening of economic conditions, analysts applaud the decision to maintain a selective acquisition activity.
Together with the drop in the stock market, the reduction of the valuations by the analysis firms has been a constant in the last year. Coinciding with their debut, the placing banks accelerated the publication of reports in which they come to see the action above 30 euros. Its maximum registered it in mid -June, when it reached 27.6 euros. 11 months ago the company’s capitalization exceeded 15,680 million and currently barely exceeds 9.6 billion
