The economy crossed the third week since the government flexible as of April 14, the exchange system, without significant shocks for the dollar, with the support of the new loan agreed with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
The dollar aligned in the 1,200 pesos, the center of the official intervention band, with a slight volatility of the quotes, in a market without intervention by the Central bank, which ratified the “fine tune” of the government to establish the new scheme.
The administration Javier Milei He ordered an initial flotation band for the wholesale dollar between 1,000 and 1,400 pesos, in an external context convulsed by the open front after the compulsive change in the United States tariff policy.
“We consider that volatility is framed in a logical process given the new scheme, with the market used to flotation and exchange rate looking for a price in the center of the bands, which the BCRA can defend given the current level of reserves,” the IEB group evaluated (invest in the stock market).
“The fall in the price of currencies surprises. In part for the greatest confidence after the generous credit of the IMF and the decrease in regulations; in part by the suspension of the active passes of the BCRA and the consequent rise of banking fees, with greater chances of carry trade and the striking lack of accumulation of reservations, ”he said in a Vatnet Financial Research report.
It is clear that the Government points to an economy with more weights in 2025. This liquidity came – as reflected in the latest two tenders of treasure bonds – partial renewals of maturities, in a range of 70% to 75%, for the benefit of a greater demand for weights, given the economic growth planned for the current year, which can neutralize the inflationary effect and pressure on the dollar of that growing circulation of weights.
This has an official argumentation behind. The Government maintains that the expansion of pesos enabled by the Treasury was part of the “Punto Anker”where expansion is a natural result of a greater demand for money and greater credit. The director of the BCRA Federico Furiase explained by the social network “X” that the rollover (Renewal of maturities) of 70% led to monetary expansion through treasure resources obtained in previous placements and now also by the turn of profits obtained by the BCRA in 2024.
“On the other hand, the ‘Anker Point’ has to do with an optimal portfolio decision of the banks to increase their exposure to the private sector – giving loans to families and companies – to the detriment of the exhibition in the public sector, the product of macro stabilization and the non -need for financing to the treasure. And said dynamic is independent of the level of exchange rate to which the monetice BCRA Treasury tender cut, ”Furiase said.
Alejo CostaHead of Economics Research & Strategy of Max Capital, observed that “the nature of the current monetary scheme, with support of deposits both in Lefi and in Treasury letters, implies that seasonal liquidity needs effectively lead to lower rates of rollover At certain times, although from the official perspective, it is difficult to distinguish those minor rates from other factors such as portfolio flaps, more expansive postures or credit risks. “
“The policy is not yet contractive, but it will be if the goal of M2 (monetary aggregates) is adjusted to reflect the commitment not to intervene within the bands,” he said.
“The world of local currency assets also begins to be accommodated after weeks of high volatility, and this week’s tender was proof of it. In the last auctions we saw how the market was very short in the curve, with emissions that did not exceed three months and with high cutting fees. In this context an accumulation of challenging maturities that must face the treasure in May and June, of $ 16.1 13.7 billion, respectively, ”said Gma Capital.
Another point to consider in an eventual injection of pesos to re -obey the economy this year, and that I could press on a more volatile exchange rate is the return of the transfer of profits from the BCRA to the treasure.
He Central Bank presented its balance accountant of 2024 and declared profits for about $ 19 billion for the profits he obtained before the reduction of paid liabilities and the quotes of the bonds in his asset. Of that total, $ 11.7 billion were sent to the Treasury, which deposited those pesos in the current account that the Treasury Palace has in the Central.
Seasonal export sales will support the government’s vision that the exchange rate approaches the lower end of the band (ADCAP)
“The transfer of profits from the BCRA to the Treasury for $ 11.7 billion also contribute their grain of sand to clear doubts about coming maturities. In this context, the authorities of the Ministry of Economy would not see necessary to validate such high cut -cut rates in tenders to achieve a high rollover“, Gma Capital said.
Megaqm experts explained that “the problem for the treasure is that, without a cash mattress, facing each expiration can be a capital challenge. In that frame, the BCRA decision is understood a Monetary effect. This is because these are accrued profits of the BCRA and not a box base, therefore they imply new broadcast since they leave the BCRA and are used for other purposes. ”
“This relieves the Treasury the” roll ‘pressure, allows you to achieve lower interest rates, but if the use is intensive, it may involve going to a more lax monetary policy, with less interest rate and therefore with a higher exchange rate balance. Every Balance, it can lead to a somewhat higher level of exchange and inflation.
“The authorities seem to dissipate one of the uncertainties of the new monetary program, which constituted the source of liquidity to re -obtain the economy if the central bank did not buy reservations within the exchange band,” Banctrust & Company published.
The authorities seem to dissipate one of the uncertainties of the new monetary program, which constituted the source of liquidity to re -obtain the economy if the Central Bank did not buy reservations (Banctrust)
The entity added that “the Treasury will attend the debt maturities – with BCRA funds – in pesos or, alternatively, will buy currencies to pay its dollars in dollars, thus increasing the liquidity of the economy. This option seems more reasonable than keeping the levels of liquidity constant.”
“It is expected that ‘M2’ will be doubled in the short term, which means that part of the skiing must be done in dollars. Under this assumption, interest rates should be kept high, the exchange rate should continue to be appreciated and inflation falls below 2% for the third quarter,” said Adcap Financial Group.
“In our opinion, seasonal sales sales will support the vision of the government that the exchange rate approaches the lower end of the short -term band,” he said.
“Argentina has faced persistent structural challenges. And, a consequence, advances in key sectors have been slow. But, the important thing today is the change of course led by the new administration,” said Delphos Investment.
“This includes less demand for public sector financing to release resources to the private sector and incentives for the development of large investments. Thanks to this, the economy is about to break its historical maximums to enter a new growth path,” he said.
“Even within a climate where financial optimism still prevails, before the ample space for additional appreciations by In front of the successful process of economic normalization, expectation has been growing on the electoral scenario, ”contributed the economist Gustavo Ber.
“This is because the agitated schedule of elections will soon start and signs will surely be sought on the final scale of October (mid -term elections), crucial in search of ratifying a broad support of society that allows you to continue moving forward with the economic plan and the reform agenda,” added the director of the Ber study.
