The S&P Merval ended its worst run of the year (six falls in a row) and bounced more than 3% on Tuesday, by the hand of YPF shares, before a strong bounce of oil, while the dollar bonds also closed upwards, in front of a more positive climate for emerging and border markets. It was within the framework of a week that investors are attentive to the decision made by the Fed Regarding interest rates, while at the local level, the Market continues to evaluate the performance of the dollar waiting for more ads related to bimonnetarism.
In that framework, The local selective rebounded 3.4% to 2,129,994.40 basic points And within the leading actions that advanced the most they stood out Silver Commercial (+7.1%) YPF (+6.6%), and values values (+6.1%). In the previous six wheels, the leading panel had accumulated a decrease of 8% in pesos and 7% in dollars.
As for ADRs, YPF Headed the promotions with a 7.4% jumpfollowed by Edenor (+6.1%); Energy view (+4.3%); and Banco Macro (+4,3%). It is worth noting that the Argentine State Petrólera will present its quarterly balance this Wednesday after the closure of the market.
In the United States, on the eve of the Federal Reserve rate Decision, The S&P 500 operated again and fell 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 lost 0.9%and Dow Jones gave up 1%.
On the other hand, the 10 -year bonus rate fell 5 basic points up to 4.30%.
The day of the day was given the price of oil, which recovered part of the losses of the last days and rose up to 3.4% (Brent exceeded US $ S62 and WTI the US $ 59). It was due to indications of greater demand in Europe and China, a lower production in the United States, tensions in the Middle East and the arrival of buyers the day that prices fell to their minimum in four years.
-This Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. From Argentina, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will be known. The market practically You have no doubt that the agency will maintain the level of unaltered rates, in the range of 4.25%–4.5%, with an implicit probability of 96.9%. However, there is more uncertainty about what may happen here at the end of the year. “Before knowing GDP data and labor market, the consensus pointed to four cuts (100 basic points) in the remainder of 2025. After the good activity data last week, the market now discounts less cuts (three or 75 basic points), but with greater dispersion,” they said from PPI.
Bonds and Risk Country
As for fixed income, the Bonds in dollars They registered generalized increases, in a context more conducive to emerging and border markets. The main ones were registered by the Global 2038 (+2.4%), the Global 2035 (+1.2%), Bonar 2035 (+1.2%), and Bonar 2038 (+1.2%).
In this way, the ETF EMB, reference of the high -risk sovereign debt segment, He advanced 0.4%, reflecting a “change in the feeling of the market,” they explained from PPI.
Thus, the Argentine country risk closed around 740 basic points. There are already seven days that remain above 700 points. “It is difficult to break the current country risk barrier. Today sovereign bonds are performing about 10-11%. We believe that this should go down in the course of the year, but it is true that the titles are already according to the risks that are in the Argentine economy. As that is solved, the index that measures the JP Morgan will go down. Retrocating and the government can find a way to accumulate reserves, sovereign bonds are going to recover land, “ Ian Colombo, financial advisor to Gold Cocos.
Meanwhile, lOs Bopreals won about 30 cents averagehighlighting the Strip 1-A that climbed 80 cents.
The CER segment operated order and earned 0.4% average, moving the best through the middle section of the curve. In turn, Fixed rate bonds also showed demand and rose 0.2%. Finally, the “Floater” segment rose 0.2%, except the dual TTM26 that fell 0.2%, He reported Grupo SBS. Thus, its monthly effective rates are in the order of 2.56%/2.65%.
