International investors have given order to stop their asset shopping plans in Spain. This is demonstrated by the brake experienced in the national merger and acquisition market. In the first quarter of 2025, 22 operations were closed, compared to the 54 transactions of the same 2024 period, which represents a 60%decline, according to the data collected by DC Advisory to which this medium has had access.
César García, managing director In Spain of this investment bank with presence in the main financial places of the world, the reasons are clear: “The uncertainty unleashed by Trump and the shock generated in the market is slowing down the closure of the processes. “
The collapse extends at European level, although the fall of the first quarter in the continent was 28%. Faced with the more than 4,000 closed operations between January and March of the 2022, 2023 and 2024, this 2025 only 2,901 transactions have been completed, DC Advisory details.
The executive director of the firm at European level, Richard Madden, speaks of “tariff tornado” to explain the causes of the investment stagnation, and considers that the good perspectives that were anticipated in December have been razed a few months later.
“The mechanics of mergers and acquisitions have become more complex: the assessment is uncertain and debt markets are uncertain. Until there is greater clarity about both, the markets will be slow,” explains Madden.
The DC Advisory executive adds that “business performance is threatened, more evident in strong tariffs such as automaker and industrial. But also, more broadly, as the impact of price increases and inflation is extended. It feels in the main economies.”
In this context, the investment banker warns that “if the negotiations for tariffs continue beyond summer and have significant implications for economic growth and inflation, the merger and acquisition market (M&A) will remain depressed up to 2026 ″.
Returning to Spain, the number of transactions at the beginning of this exercise is even lower than in 2020 (24 acquisitions) and 2021 (46 purchases), years marked by the pandemic. The fall covers all the analyzed sectors. Two less in the financial and Fintech sector than last year. Three less in consumption and retail, five less health transactions, three less in the industrial sector, eight less in telecommunications, medium and technology and eleven less in infrastructure.
In the capital market, the uncertainty generated in the markets is also noted. For these first measures of 2025, the IPO of CIRSA, playing company owned by the Blackstone American Fund was foreseen. However, the crisis of stock market has paralyzed this process.
The great M&A operations are also being delayed. There are various stagnated renewable sales processes, the sales of fiber alliances that have put on the Vodafone, Telefónica and Masorange market have not been completed. Urbaser’s sale, which was foreseen as the great agreement of private equity For this start of the year, it has not been completed either. And there are still processes that began in 2024, such as the exclusion of Grifols bag or the BBVA OPA on Sabadell that will take formalized.
The break unleashed in the market by Trump, which in addition to directly affecting the sectors by the imposition of tariffs has consequences on others not directly impacted by doubts about economic growth worldwide.
The tariff climate affects companies such as Codorniú, both directly by the tariffs of a key market such as the American and for the greatest competition that is unleashed in other territories where their commercial rivals redir their sales.
The investment break in Spanish assets and companies occurs despite the strong capital lifting to be achieved in 2024. In fact, the financial industry promised them very happy since they hoped that these funds could be invested with access to more light credit due to the descent of interest rates.
“The activity of capturing new resources in Spain lived a great moment in 2024, with a total figure of fundraising of 4,071 million euros – an increase of 50% compared to the previous year according to the Spaincap employer – mainly driven by mega operations in sectors such as financial services, means and entertainment and energy and real estate. This thrust was benefited by the greater activity of banks and debt/credit funds, ”says César García, Executive of DC Advisory Spain.
With this high level of capital to be invest and a situation of lighter types, Garcia believes that the break will be momentary and the activity will be resumed soon. “The Spanish market is in a phase of adaptation to a changing economic environment. We attend a break along the way, but it is a matter of time.” “Advanced transactions that could have been closed in April will probably pass to June or July. However, the demand for quality assets remains solid, especially in well -positioned sectors against geopolitical and economic challenges,” he adds.
“It remains to be seen in the M&A sector to the Public Aid Package of 14,100 million euros announced by the Spanish Government in early April, in an effort to provide confidence, as well as to facilitate an acceleration of the activity,” says the banker.
DC Advisory, who in this volatile context has managed to close operations such as the sale of Iñaki snacks to Aguinaga Angulas or give entry to VGO in Manolo Bakes, believes that the secondary market will gain weight and the funds of continuation, an alternative exit for investors when they fail to sell in a timely manner.
