This Thursday, May 8 The veil will be run that will show the behavior of inflation in April, around which there is a wide expectation, taking into account that the bank of the Republic uncovered the monetary policy report and there He reviewed the prognosis with the price of food (from 3.3 % passed to 4.6 %) and regulated (from 4.9 % to 5.9 %).
The DANE will reveal the behavior of consumer prices in the fourth month of the year, and although to the producer who prepares the goods and offers the services The cost did not upload so much, there are signs that would be indicating that families would be costing more to acquire the basket.
In the country, after the peak at which he reached the effect of the pandemic (March 2023: 13.3 %), inflation lasted 23 months touring a bassist path, but then, in the last 5 months, the indicator changed. Four months he remained still and only until March 2025 he fell again, although very slightly: to 5.09 % from 5.2 %.
Inflationary pressures in the world would be in sight, caused by the tariff policy of the Government of Donald Trumpwhich generates uncertainty in the markets.
Part of the coup falls on the price of fooddue to the increases in the international contributions of some agricultural inputs and products, says the issuer’s report.
In the case of regulated, The Coletazo comes from the increase observedbeyond expected, in the rates of gas and urban transport.
To review upward projections, The Bank of the Republic contemplates, For example, the increase in the ACMP that Colombia has pending, after having removed the subsidies at the price of gasoline, which led to a deficit of the combustile price stabilization (FPEC).
But although the Central Bank estimates that the inflation of food will be greater, the total will continue to descend and close the year by 4.4%(before 4.1%) and 2026 in 3%. That is, the issuer continues to bet on the consumer price indicator, to the planned goal, in 2026, which would be achieved at the end of next year.
Sights in sight
Food and regulated would continue to impact the consumer price index because less growth in the international environment is coming, according to projections, due to the drop in prices of the prices of commoditiesthe depreciation of the dollar against the main currencies and an increase in the costs of the production and transport of goods globally.
A decrease in external demand is divided into the horizon And possible reductions in the growth of workers’ remittances, which has been fundamental in Colombia to boost GDP, because the money sent by the inhabitants from abroad to their relatives in the country, helps to boost the local economy.
Within what the experts of the Bank of the Republic that prepare the monetary policy report They visualize for the medium term, it should be mentioned that possible inflationary clashes of supply in processed foods (international prices hit them).
In the list of negative effects that would have on the magnifying glassas threats to reach the inflation target, appear: international financial conditions.
The truth is that JPMorganthe largest bank in the United States, has been less optimistic with the idea that the Bank of the Republic in Colombia manages to put inflation in the position (towards 3%) that would help the economy more to the economy, would take away from the Board of the issuer the weight that implies being cautious to lower interest rates.
