The Opening Power Rankings are back for a new season and for this first edition of 2024, we’re focusing on Opening Day starters.
It’s a group brimming with talent, despite missing big names, such as reigning Cy Young Award winners Gerrit Cole (recovering from an elbow injury) and Blake Snell (increasing his load after signing with the Giants on March, 19.)
However, our panel of MLB.com voters faced the difficult task of narrowing down 30 talented pitchers to a list of 10, taking into account career history, 2023 results and what’s expected in 2024. This It would surely cause some notable omissions and we are sure they will let us know, but equally this Top 10 should continue to generate excitement for Opening Day.
Here we present the first Power Rankings of Openers of 2024, Opening Day edition. Each pitcher appears alongside his opponent on Opening Day. (All times are Eastern Time.)
1. Spencer Strider, Braves
3:05 pm vs. PHI (postponed until Friday)
It’s scary to think that Strider might be getting better, given that he just led the Major Leagues with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts. But the 25-year-old right-hander had a great spring that could portend a masterful 2024, as he has had success adding a curveball to his already effective fastball-slider combination. Strider is about to become the fastest pitcher to reach 500 career strikeouts, in terms of innings worked.
2. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
3:05 pm vs. THE A
What an important year this is for Burnes. The 29-year-old pitcher, acquired by the Orioles in a trade with the Brewers during the offseason, will be key as the leader of a rotation affected by injuries, on a team that seriously aspires to win a championship. As if arriving in town as the “missing piece” wasn’t enough, Burnes also has a chance to secure a juicy contract when he becomes a free agent this coming winter.
3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
3:05 pm vs. ATL (postponed until Friday)
That’s why the Phillies recently agreed to pay Wheeler an average of $42 million per year between his ages 35 and 37. According to FanGraphs’ version of WAR, Wheeler is a very close second to Cole among all pitchers since 2018, and shows no signs of slowing down as his 34th birthday approaches in May.
4. Pablo López, Twins
4:10 pm at KC
Lopez showed a lot of potential and enjoyed periods of success in five seasons with the Marlins, but he never managed to put it all together before being traded to the Twins. In Minnesota, the Venezuelan stayed healthy, added an effective sweeper to his repertoire of pitches and finally stood out as a luxury pitcher, earning his first selection to the All-Star Game and consideration for the American League Cy Young Award in 2023. With the departure of Sonny Gray to St. Louis, López is now the stronghold in the Twin Cities.
5. Zac Gallen, D-backs
10:10 pm vs. CABBAGE
Gallen solidified his ace label during a brilliant season in which he finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting and, in the process, helped Arizona go far in the postseason. The big question now might be how the right-hander will perform on the mound after pitching 243.2 innings last year, including the D-backs’ run to the World Series. That combined total was 24 innings more than any other pitcher.
6. Luis Castillo, Mariners
10:10 pm vs. B.O.S.
It’s always fascinating to see a successful pitcher reinvent himself, and that’s what Castillo has done. The Dominican right-hander made a name for himself with an effective changeup as his strong card early in his career. Every season from 2017 to 2021, that was his primary strikeout pitch, especially in 2019, when he struck out 155 batters with that pitch. But over the past two seasons, changeup usage has been on the decline, while usage of his four-seam fastball has skyrocketed. In 2023, Castillo had 105 strikeouts with his four-seam fastball and only 35 with his changeup – and with quite satisfactory results.
7. Logan Webb, Giants
4:10 pm in SD
Snell arrives in San Francisco with two Cy Young Awards in tow, but Webb remains the most reliable pitcher in this rotation. At a time when starter workloads continue to decline, Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched in 2023 – leading the Giants by a margin of 64.2 innings. The quality was almost as strong as the quantity: Webb led the National League with a 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting.
8. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
4:10 pm at CWS
In January, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello detailed why Skubal is a pitcher to watch in 2024, following the left-hander’s outstanding performance in the second half of last season after returning from flexor tendon surgery. Skubal also excelled in recent spring training. For some, the inclusion on this list of a pitcher who has very little experience in the Major League might seem exaggerated, but it is clear that his ability and potential are there.
9. Framber Valdez, Astros
4:10 pm vs. NYY
In general, last season was another successful one for Valdez, who was called to the All-Star Game for the second year in a row and finished with around 200 innings and 200 strikeouts. That said, he struggled during the second half (4.66 ERA) and in the postseason (0-3, 9.00 ERA), which may have forced our panel to take a pause. Despite this, when the Dominican is in rhythm, Valdez’s sinker-curveball combination can be devastating.
10. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers
4:10 pm vs. STL
The only pitcher in the Top 10 who has already made his debut in 2024, Glasnow was solid – although not spectacular – in Game 1 of the Seoul Series against the Padres on March 21 (5 L, 2 H, 2 C, 2 CL, 4 BB, 3 K). The Southern California native will probably feel most comfortable in the opening game at Dodger Stadium. Health is the only question surrounding the lanky flamethrower, and the sky is the limit if the right-hander can stay on the mound consistently.
Others who received votes: Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers), Cole Ragans (Royals), Justin Steele (Cubs), Dominican Freddy Peralta (Brewers), Zach Eflin (Rays), Peruvian-Venezuelan Jesús Luzardo (Marlins)
Voters: David Adler, Scott Chiusano, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Bryan Horowitz, Brent Maguire, Whitney McIntosh, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, Andrew Simon, Zac Vierra
