(CNN) — Donald Trump continues to maintain a lead over President Joe Biden as the campaign — and the former president’s criminal trial — progresses, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the looming rematch, opinions on the first term of each of the men vying for a second four-year term in the White House now appear to be leaning in favor of Trump, with a majority of Americans saying that Looking back, Trump’s tenure as president was a success, while a large majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure.
Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters remains stable at 49% in a head-to-head with Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from 45% in January.
In retrospect, 55% of Americans consider Trump’s presidency a success, while 44% consider it a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.
Evaluating Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency so far has been a failure, while 39% say it has been a success. This figure is slightly worse than the 57% who called the first year of his administration a failure in January 2022, while 41% called it a success.
Republicans are now more united around the idea that Trump’s presidency has been a success than Democrats are that Biden’s has been. Overall, 92% of Republicans consider Trump’s presidency a success, while only 73% of Democrats think Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency has been a success, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success.
Former President Donald Trump, seen here on April 25, 2024. (Credit: Jeenah Moon/Pool/AFP/Getty Images)
There is some overlap in opinions about the achievements of the two most recent presidents, with 14% of Americans saying they consider both failures, while 8% say they are both successes. About half of registered voters, 47%, consider Biden’s presidency so far a failure while they say Trump’s has been a success, while only 30% say Biden’s has been a success and that Trump’s has not been. Public opinion of former presidents often rises in retrospect, although no other modern president has attempted a similar return to power after an electoral defeat.
Negative views of Biden’s performance in office have persisted for much of his presidency. In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his management and 40% approve, more or less the same as has been seen in CNN polls for more than a year. Even Biden’s best approval ratings in the poll are in negative territory, with 45% approving his handling of health policy and 44% approving his handling of student loan debt. And his worst issue approval rating – his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – shows 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including 81% disapproval among those under 35 and one disapproval majority among Democrats (53%).
The economy
Biden’s approval ratings for the economy (34%) and inflation (29%) remain sharply negative, as voters say economic concerns are more important to them when choosing a candidate than they think. they were in each of the last two presidential races. In the new poll, 65% of registered voters consider the economy extremely important to their presidential vote, compared to 40% who thought this way in early 2020 and 46% who said the same at about this point in 2016. Those voters who say the economy is very important opt for Trump in a matchup against Biden, 62% to 30%.
A large majority of all Americans, 70%, think the U.S. economic situation is bad, and many of those who think this way, especially Republicans, say their opinion would be most affected by political change. than due to a change in the economy itself. About 4 in 10 of that group (41%) say a change in political leadership in Washington would do more to change their impressions of the economy than a lower inflation rate, a change in their personal financial situation or a sustained rise. from the bag. About 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) who think the economy is bad say a change in leadership would change their opinion, compared to 13% of Democrats who think the same.
After the policy, a decline in the inflation rate could change the minds of a considerable portion of those who believe the economy is in bad shape: 37% think so, and many fewer cite a positive change in their personal finances. (14%) or a rise in the stock market (3%) as factors that would have the same effect.
Americans’ perception of their own finances also remains negative: 53% say they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, while 47% are satisfied. Dissatisfaction is clearly prevalent among people with lower incomes (67% of households with annual incomes less than $50,000 report dissatisfaction), people of color (64% report dissatisfaction), and younger Americans (61% report dissatisfaction). % of those under 45 years of age declare themselves dissatisfied).
Another questions
Regarding other priority issues for the upcoming elections, 58% of voters consider the protection of democracy to be an extremely important issue, the only other issue analyzed that the majority consider fundamental to their election. Nearly half consider immigration, crime and gun policy very important (48% each), while health care (43%), abortion (42%) and Supreme Court appointments (39% ) are very important to 4 out of 10 voters. At the lower end of the scale, only 33% consider foreign policy as important, 27% climate change, 26% the war between Israel and Hamas, and 24% student loans.
Sharp partisan differences remain on the most important issues in electing a president. Among Democratic voters, the protection of democracy (67%), abortion (54%), the economy (52%), weapons policy (51%) and health care (49%) are considered key by half or more, while on the Republican side they are the economy (79%), immigration (71%), crime (65%) and democracy (54%).
Impressions about the candidates
Beyond the issues, impressions of both candidates remain largely negative (58% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, 55% of Trump), and a narrow majority of voters, 53%, say they are dissatisfied with the candidates he has to choose from in this year’s presidential race.
A sizeable 17% of registered voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and when it comes to choosing between the two, they opt for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying that you’d vote for someone else, skip the race entirely, or just aren’t sure who you’d support.
President Joe Biden speaks to the National Action Network Convention remotely from the South Court Auditorium of the White House on April 12, 2024. (Credit: Alex Brandon/AP)
Among all voters, when including independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump has 42% to Biden’s 33%, with Kennedy at 16%, West with 4% and Stein with 3%. Kennedy scores 13% each for Biden and Trump supporters in the initial two-way showdown.
In the confrontation between Biden and Trump, the poll reveals that Biden comes out worse than in previous CNN polls among younger voters, falling behind Trump by a margin of 51% to 40% among voters under 35 years old. Biden’s deficit among voters in that group is largely due to those who did not vote in 2020. With that group excluded, voters ages 18 to 34 in this survey split 46% for Biden to 47% for Trump. Although not all polls publish cross-tabulations or use the same age ranges when reporting results, other recent polls have shown a wide range of results for younger voters when testing a Trump-Biden matchup, ranging from an 18-point Trump lead among those under 30 in the Fox News poll in mid-March to a 21-point Biden lead among those under 30 in the Pew Research poll earlier this month.
Among all voters, Biden remains somewhat at a disadvantage relative to Trump in the percentage of voters who have ruled out voting for him: 52% say there is no chance they will support him, while 47% say there is no chance no chance they will support Trump, both numbers are similar to the level found in a fall CNN poll. A small share of registered voters – 5% for Biden, 3% for Trump – say that, although they do not currently support that candidate, they would consider him.
But the poll reveals that Biden and Trump voters largely don’t understand each other. Among those who do not currently support Biden, 66% say they do not understand why anyone would support him, and 63% of those who do not support Trump say they cannot understand why anyone would support him.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from April 18 to 23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 967 registered voters. Surveys were conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.8 points.
With reporting by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu.
