Labor is eyeing winning back a raft of Scottish seats it has not held since 2010 as it seeks to capitalize on the implosion by the SNP.
Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf announced his intention on Monday to resign after he sparked political chaos in Holyrood by pulling the plug on the party’s coalition agreement with the Greens.
Both Labor and the Conservatives are now seeking to take advantage of the turmoil, believing they could pick up votes from a growing public increasingly disillusioned by the Scottish government.
One Scottish Labor source told Yo that it was difficult to put a figure on how many additional constituents it could bring into play at the general election, but the insider added: “Our recovery has been people who previously backed them feeling like they were chaotic and out of ideas. It’s hard to see how this doesn’t confirm that fear. “So there are lots of opportunities for us.”
Pollsters believe Labor could afford to target more seats they have not held since 2010, but pointed out that the SNP has built up a solid base since then and a change of leader could prompt a turnaround in fortunes for the party.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said that while it was unlikely that Labor will regain the 41 seats it held in 2010, which would require a complete collapse in SNP support, there were more opportunities for the party.
“The general rule for Labor in Scotland is ‘the sky’s the limit’ and there’s little point at this stage of having a ceiling – at least privately – of what could be achieved,” Mr Hopkins added. “However, once this latest SNP drama has settled and there is a new leader, there’s nothing to say a comeback of sorts couldn’t be mounted.”
I have highlighted that previous polling showed that the leading candidates to take over as Prime Minister – John Swinney and Kate Forbes – were viewed more favorably by SNP voters than Mr Yousaf during the last leadership contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon.
A major MRP poll by YouGov earlier this month, before the political chaos sparked by the SNP’s decision to break its power sharing agreement, showed Labor could secure more than 20 additional seats in Scotland at the next election.
Fresh YouGov polling published on Monday showed that the SNP and Labor are now level pegging in terms of the public’s voting intention, with Labor on 34 per cent, just one point ahead of the SNP on 33 per cent.
The turmoil has given the Conservatives greater hope that they will be able to hold onto their six existing seats in Scotland, with eleven sources suggesting a further slide in support for the SNP could open up opportunities in a further half a dozen constituencies in more rural areas , such as Perthshire, Argyll and Ayrshire.
The Tories believe that a drop in support in Scotland for the SNP shows the public is more in tune with the UK Government when it comes to issues such as gender identity and holding another independence referendum.
A Tory source told Yo: “They started to believe their own, incredibly arrogant hype about Scotland having ‘different values’ from Westminster.”
The source suggested that the “daft woke stuff” got the party into trouble and they now look “incompetent and out of touch.”
