Southern Africa has been suffering from an extremely persistent drought for many monthsas NASA has recently warned on its social networks, a situation to which the global climate phenomenon of El Niño has especially contributed.
A disastrous drought worsened by El Niño
The global climate phenomenon of El Niño has been present since the summer of 2023. It is known that considerably increases global average temperatures, but also alters the distribution of precipitation in different regions of the world. For example, it causes wetter conditions in northwestern South America, parts of eastern Africa, and regions from California to Florida.
However, this climatic phenomenon also has the opposite effect, that is, generates drier conditions in parts of Oceania, Asia and northern South America, as well as central and southern Africa. It is precisely in this sector where the situation is most problematic at the beginning of 2024.
In fact, There was already a significant drought before the appearance of El Niño, between Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Lesotho. In these areas, half of the normal rainfall fell between January and March 2023, and the appearance of El Niño subsequently aggravated this drought, which has had serious repercussions on the region’s crops.
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In Zambia, half of the crops have been destroyed by the intense drought of recent months. Currently, 1.4 million cattle are considered to be in danger of death. due to lack of water in much of southern Africa, while the unhealthy state of the remaining water has already caused a cholera epidemic between Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.
Will the situation improve next year with La Niña?
As we have already warned in Meteored in recent weeks, the phenomenon of El Niño will soon end, probably late this spring, giving way to La Niña at the end of the yearwhich will bring more frequent rains to the mentioned regions.
However, The change in weather is unlikely to be sudden, quite the contrary. The weather forecasts for the coming months are pessimistic for southern Africa, with rains continuing to decrease in areas where drought has a long history and is especially dangerous for the population.
It will take several months for the effects of El Niño to fade, meaning rain will not return in abundance to southern Africa anytime soon. Consequently, the 2024 growing season is already in danger in many areas.
Thus, The United Nations has appealed for international help to try to avoid the risk of famine on a large scale in the aforementioned countries. According to estimates, 20 million people are currently at risk, a number that could increase if the situation does not improve in the coming months.
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The only current hope is in the return of La Niña at the end of 2024. If this climatic phenomenon actually happens after El Niño, as most forecasts predict, rain could return to these regions between winter 2024 and spring 2025. which should improve crops and water supply for a large number of inhabitants.
