Emily Stausbøll explains how disruptions in US tariffs, tensions in China and Taiwan, and nearshoring could impact shipping rates and capacity.
In a recently held Xeneta webinar, analysts Peter Sand and Emily Stausbøll shared ways to spot when a disruption will create market volatility and what disruptions will likely hit shipping next.
Stausbøll suggested watching these three areas closely:
The U.S.
With presidential elections coming up in November and Donald Trump already floating the idea of 60% tariffs on imports from China, and 10% tariffs on imports from anywhere else, we might see some shippers starting to frontload their imports of goods to ensure delivery before tariff deadlines, which would have a knock-on impact to rates and capacity on the US-bound trades.
China and Taiwan
There are very real possibilities of tensions rising in this area, and if they do, shippers should be prepared for the knock-on effect to exports within the region – with intra-Far East volumes already very high, but also exports out of the region too, and the ripple effect on global supply chains more generally.
Nearshoring
With more volumes moving away from China towards South East Asia (including the Indian sub-continent, Mexico and closer to Europe), there is the potential for disruptions while the infrastructure needed to support nearshoring or reshoring activity is built. Once established, it should be expected to see a ramping up of capacity and production through these corridors.
Carriers are not pushing too hard
The average distance moved by a container globally is up by around 11% from where we were in 2023. This has been driven by ocean freight diversions because of the Red Sea crisis and is translating to higher costs, longer transit routes and great impacts on CO2 emissions.
As Stausbøll observes, despite a 23% growth in TEU-mile with these diversions, “if you compare that with how the fleet has been growing, even with this higher TEU mile growth, the fleet can manage that.”
“We’re going to keep getting new ships being delivered, and at some stage that TEU mile demand will revert to what it should have been if ships weren’t entertaining. That is why carriers are not pushing too hard when it comes to the long-term market,” Stausbøll comments.
Source: Xeneta
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