In the private investment projections of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) For this year, a recovery in investment in hydrocarbons is expected, with a growth of 21.7%, but this focuses on oil production, not a single sol is included for exploration of new natural gas reserves.
In fact, in Peru no investments have been made for gas exploration for eight years; The last one was developed by CNPC, in 2016, in Lot 58, which allowed it to confirm proven reserves of 3.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, but which have not been exploited until now.
The consequence of this paralysis is a increasing dependence on imports liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which in Peru are processed from natural gas liquids, that are extracted from the gas exploitation of the Camisea field.
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However, the production of these liquids shows a sustained contraction. Last April, for example, the gas fields contributed a production of 77,700 barrels on a daily average, a volume lower by –1.9% than the same month of 2023, according to figures from Perupetro SA
In April 2022, for example, 83,600 barrels were extracted on a daily average.
This contraction of supply, coupled with the growth in demand for LPG, which is estimated at a rate of 5% annually (after the pandemic) has led to Peru today have to import more than 30% of the LPG consumed by the domestic market.
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Why aren’t there more investments to search for gas?
According to César Butrón, president of the Economic Operation Committee of the National Interconnected Electrical System (COES), a long-term consequence if new investments are not made in gas exploration, It can be an increase in costs for electricity consumers.
It is worth remembering that currently, About half of electricity production is based on natural gas thermal power plants, and that in 2023, given the drought and contraction of hydroelectric production, the use of these plants, but also others powered by diesel, avoided restrictions on the supply of electricity.
Butrón pointed out that, although it is known that there is much more natural gas in the subsoil, there are reasons why these fields are not developed.
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One of them, considered, is that there is no security in putting together a business model with long-term contracts with consumers of that gas, which in turn allow financing the investments required to do more exploration and development.
These contracts, he noted, could be, for example, to increase electricity generation, or for the use of gas in petrochemicals, or for industrial consumption, which could bring more exploratory investment, but also to expand the gas production capacity at the Malvinas plantwhich, he noted, requires a significant investment.
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To face this situation, and before the Camisea contract ends in 2040 (for the exploitation of Lot 88) With an anticipation of between five to ten years, we would have to start looking for alternatives (for gas generation).
The latter, he noted, could be more hydroelectric plants, or the construction of geothermal plants, more wind and solar plantsor a combination of all those technologies, in such magnitude that they can replace the current gas thermal plants.
However, the problem, he stressed, is not technical, but economic, Because although there are other technologies (without gas) that could solve future generation, the consequence will be the effect on the final prices of electricity (more expensive than current ones).
“You have to choose the best path, do simulations and studies that are not being done (today),” he warned.
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For him former president of Perupetro, Aurelio Ochoaa key aspect to attract investments towards gas exploration, is to ensure whoever finds new gas reserves, the evacuation of these to the markets, which involves concluding the southern Andean gas pipeline project, today known as SIT-Gas.
However, he noted that he is concerned that ProInversion has not been able to advance this project, but has gotten stuck again, given that it could not specify the process to choose a consulting firm to be in charge of carrying out the project.pre-investment studies for SIT-Gas.
The expert considered that ProInversión should have been more aggressive in its promotion so that interested companies would present themselves in doing those studies, since the project has been paralyzed for seven years and no progress has been made to unblock it.
But, he added, it is also up to Perupetro SA be more aggressive in promotion to attract investments in that exploration, and the State must accelerate the permits for that activity, since the approval of their studies takes up to five years, while in Colombia they only take six months.
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