Taylor Swift It’s the moment. She is not only one of the most famous people in the United States, but she has also become a reference in the rest of the world. Hurricane ‘Swift’ was also experienced this week in Spainafter the Pennsylvania singer, winner of 14 Grammy Awardsand the only person to win the Best Album of the Year award three times, sold out the Santiago Bernabéu stadium two nights in a row.
The media and social interest that the artist has generated comes from afar, and her influence to the point of becoming a possible political power as well. In the North American country, experts do not stop wondering if his political positioning can now defeat Trumpwho faces Democrat Joe Biden for the second time, who won the elections last 2020. Experts assure that, although his opinion is probably not the decisive factor for an undecided voter between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, his ability to Mobilizing young voters could be crucialespecially if it does so in those decisive states, the so-called swing statesor ‘hinge states’, in which historically they have oscillated between the Democratic and Republican votes.
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Choosing a Democratic or Republican side, in the United States, can lead to criticism from one side or the other, and that is why Taylor Swift remained apolitical since she began her career in music in 2006. But on October 7, 2018, Swift, who was even rumored to be a supporter of Donald Trump, took a political position for the first time in her entire career. In a post on Instagram, supported the candidates of this party of his state, Tennessee, in the midterm elections that were to be held on November 6. His influence was such that 48 hours after he finally took a stand, more than 160,000 people registered to vote on the vote.org page.
Both in September 2023 and this month of March, on the occasion of Super Tuesday, Swift repeated the play. Last year, the singer again asked that her, by then, 272 million followers, register to vote. The non-partisan, non-profit organization assured that it documented more than 35,000 new registrations after its publication. Last March, Swift also posted an Instagram Story reminding her to register to cast her ballot in the presidential primaries in Tennessee and 16 other states and territories.
But what real impact does Taylor Swift have on American politics? “She has a lot of pull,” he explains. Javier Martín Merchán, political scientist and professor at the Department of International Relations of the Universidad Pontificia Comillas (ICAI-ICADE). The expert assures that one of the reasons for her power and mobilization is that in the end, the singer, in addition to being another factor along with the many that can modify the meaning of the vote, has a huge number of followers, and very loyal ones. . “He has more millions of followers than any of the candidates for the elections can have on all the platforms combined,” he says. “He has shown himself on numerous occasions in favor of many of the causes championed by the Democratic Party and, above all, many of the causes that it does not champion in an antagonistic sense. He even clearly rejects the party, not so much the Republican Party, but Trump’s leadership,” he adds. This was already seen in his documentary, Miss Americanareleased in early 2020.
In fact, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, a top Biden surrogate, all but begged Swift to become more involved in Biden’s campaign when he spoke to reporters after a Republican primary debate in September. “Taylor Swift’s position is elevated and unique“, said. “What he accomplished in getting young people activated to consider that they have a voice and that they should have a choice in the next election, I think is deeply powerful.”
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However, the fact that Joe Biden be 81 years old It is not one of the points that most attract young people to encourage them to vote, which tends to demobilize this part of the population. To this we must add that this group is particularly critical of Biden’s foreign policy in the conflict in Gaza. “Those people who were somehow consolidating their electoral growth in 2020 are now calling it genocidal,” says the political scientist. Can Taylor Swift salvage this somehow? The expert assures that yes: “A specific support from Taylor Swift could work almost as compensation for everything you have lost in these months”.
But when he spoke out for the first time in 2018, despite the fact that there was a large increase in voter registration in those primaries, the Republican Party ended up winning the race for the Tennessee Senate. “Not even that increase in presumably Democratic mobilization was enough to turn the tables,” adds Martín. The reason, according to the expert, is that the increase in the participation of one of the sides does not imply or does not lead to substantial changes in the result.
However, the political scientist explains that, on this occasion, it could have an impact if it managed to mobilize votes in strategic states, the so-called swing states or ‘hinge’ states. “Achieving a small modification, whether in the form of a transfer or mobilization of the Democratic Party, could mean a victory for the Democratic Party and victory in that state,” he says. Although the ‘hinge’ states change slightly from one election to another, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin usually take that title.
And what makes you think it can have that small impact? Martín says that, despite the fact that Swift is an artist who has high rates of support that are quite well identified in “the upper-middle class generally of the Democratic Party, with a relatively settled socioeconomic status and generally white race,” It has very transversal support.
In fact, one of the latest YouGov surveys, carried out between January 30 and February 1, 2024, ensures that the 32% of the adult population American declares himself a “fan” or “something of a fan” of the singer. Among Swift’s followers, a declared Democrat, and who has already shown her support for Biden on the occasion of the 2020 elections, a 49% of them are also Democrats like her. However, that does not prevent 26% of his followers, whether they are more of a fan or a little less, from voting Republican.
In the same way, in the 2020 elections, 41% of his followers voted for Biden, and 24% to Donald Trump. However, this takes more shape when among his strongest fans there were almost as many Donald Trump voters as Biden voters that year (6% of the former and 7% of the latter). “That transversal support is an electoral asset as you probably don’t have either candidate right now. Another issue by which elections can be decided, especially in favor of the Democratic Party,” adds the expert.
However, the specialist adds a surprising fact. “Practically four out of ten swifties In different surveys they have declared that would be willing to change the direction of their vote, to rethink and even change it if Taylor Swift explicitly expressed herself in favor of a political party.” This indicates that there is a good portion of her followers, including Republicans, who if Taylor were to ultimately make an explicit statement for the Democratic Party, they might rethink the meaning of her vote.
But Martín says that the problem is that today two “almost opposing” social poles have been generated. “In a so polarized climate like the one we live, it is done even more complicated “That a figure like Taylor or any other is capable of mobilizing votes, which under normal conditions or in less polarized climates could perhaps mobilize them.”
