Calculations from the National Electoral Institute show that the 2024 elections will be the largest in the history of Mexico, with the renewal of 20,000 public positions throughout the country, including the presidency of the Republic, senators and deputations. In the countdown, the INE has refined the final details for the elections in Mexico, and it is expected that the vote counting will begin after the closing of the polls.
At that time, the electoral authority will deploy, in an orderly manner, three mechanisms to know the results of the election day: the PREP, the quick count and the district counts. These mechanisms—established in the General Law of Electoral Institutions and Procedures—serve to build a solid vote counting methodology.
How the results of the elections in Mexico will be given
This Sunday, the population will go to the polls to exercise their right to vote. The polls will be open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., but voters who are still inside the facilities will have the opportunity to vote. At 8:00 p.m., two hours after the polls close, the INE will issue its first results through the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP), which will be fed with the information collected from all polling stations in the country.
If at 10:00 p.m. the number of votes counted reaches a confidence range of 95%, the quick count will begin, which will continue until Wednesday, June 5. At the end of the quick count, the district counts will begin, which will remain until Saturday, June 8.
The three mechanisms are advised by experts in mathematics and statistics who https://twitter.com/INEMexico/status/1780092210534285592 on election day. However, they have important differences. As these are preliminary results and voting trends, the PREP and the quick count have no legal effects on the election. On the other hand, district counts do have legal validity because they define the result of the elections. Below is a detail of what each one consists of, their scope and at what time they will be published.
What is the PREP in the elections and when is it published?
The Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) is a compilation of information from the minutes of all polling stations in the country. PREP offers preliminary results in real time during election night, and allows citizens to follow the counting of votes. This system is nourished by the minutes it receives; It starts with the closing of the polls and operates for the following 24 hours. Although the INE is responsible for the PREP, the results issued by this mechanism are not definitive nor do they have legal effects, as they are only informative. Different universities, newspapers, radio stations, television stations and news agencies will broadcast the results of the PREP from June 2 to 3.
What is quick counting, what does it measure and when is it published?
Graciela López Herrera (Cuartoscuro)
The quick count is the second mechanism in operation on election night, but unlike the PREP—which only captures and publishes the data from the tally sheets—it takes a sample from a certain number of polling stations, based on a mathematical criterion. Thus, the quick count is an estimate of the trend that the election results will take and is made known in a message to the citizens.
The results obtained in the quick count cannot be considered proof of victory, nor do they have legal effects. Instead, it serves to know the meaning of citizen preferences just a few hours after the voting ends. The number of cells taken for the sample is defined through a statistical procedure by a committee of experts. This tool is used to estimate:
- The percentage of votes in favor of each of the candidates for the presidency of the Republic and the trends in the formation of the Congress of the Union.
- The percentage of votes for the candidates for the eight Governorships and the head of the capital’s Government.
- The percentage of citizens who go to vote.
During the 2024 elections, the INE will carry out a total of 12 quick counts: three for the federal elections, eight for the governorships and one for the leadership of Mexico City. The first results will be announced between 10:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. on Sunday, June 2.
The district counts and the final result of the elections
The district counts will take place from June 5 to 8. They are the sum of the results contained in all the minutes of the polling stations of the 300 District Councils, and provide the official results of the elections. Unlike the previous models, these do have legal effects. These are done in the presence of party representatives and independent observations, as well as election observers.
What are exit surveys and who conducts them?
Exit surveys are not the responsibility of the INE. These are carried out by the polling houses on the day of election day “at the exit,” that is, the people who leave the polling stations are interviewed to find out their vote cast. These polls are based on what the voter expresses when leaving the polling station, not on facts with statistical criteria. Neither the electoral authority nor the local electoral public bodies conduct exit polls.
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