The challenges of the new president of Mexico go through three axes: money, dialogue and the US

The challenges of the future president of Mexico, the first woman in power, are many and profound, among which are the violence of the cartels, the polarization of the country, the cost of maintaining social programs and the long shadow of her mentor. , the outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

But for some analysts, the majority revolves around three concepts: money, dialogue and what may happen in the next United States elections.

Claudia Sheinbaum, who will begin her six-year term on October 1, has four months ahead of her to define her government program. In that time, López Obrador will offer some 80 morning conferences in which he is expected to try to realize his legacy.

This coexistence is not easy: he polarized society, she speaks of “dialogue” and “harmony”; He is a mass leader, she is an academic and scientist. Nor will it be maintaining the balance between continuity with López Obrador’s legacy and the possibility of adjusting some of his most controversial policies, such as security or energy.

López Obrador affirmed on Monday that he will not influence the government of his successor and that he does not aspire “to be a moral leader, nor maximum boss, nor caudillo, much less a chieftain.” He did say that there will be dialogue between them to facilitate the transition and even He left open the possibility of taking a trip together but guaranteed that when he gives up the presidency he will retire from politics and public life to dedicate himself to “talking with the trees, living with the birds.”

However, it was he who announced the first member of Sheinbaum’s cabinet on Monday morning, saying that the current Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, will remain in office to give peace of mind to the markets. Hours later, Sheinbaum confirmed it.

A first economic problem is whether it will have money to continue with the current social programs – which represent around 11.5% of GDP – since Mexico already has a large public deficit of almost 6% that the Treasury wants to reduce. “There are going to be cuts and this new legislature has to vote on that,” said Isidro Morales, an academic expert in Economics and International Relations.

“A tax reform is needed, if there isn’t one, Claudia’s hands are going to be tied,” he added, because Mexico no longer has much oil revenue that was previously an important source of foreign currency.

The state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos, a symbol of López Obrador’s staunchest nationalism but also of years of corruption and which maintains a polluting energy model that the world wants to reverse, does not stop losing money.

Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and First Lady Beatriz Gutiérrez Müller arrive to vote during the general elections in Mexico City, Sunday, June 2, 2024.

(Ginnette Riquelme/AP)

Analysts consider that it is one of the big red lines that Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who advocates for clean energy, will not be able to touch because the workers in the sector were an important electoral support, as demonstrated by the many banners at the end of her campaign in the which read “tankers”.

Furthermore, the period of transfer of power will occur in the middle of the electoral campaign of the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner and whose security and immigration policies are totally interrelated by sharing more than 3,000 kilometers of border.

The reelection of Democrat Joe Biden or the return of Republican Donald Trump on November 5 will be “the real variable that will modify scenarios,” explained Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, professor at CIDE, a Mexican public research center.

The reason why these votes will influence so much in Mexican territory is simple: whether one or the other wins can not only condition the policy against organized crime, trade or immigration but also internal decisions in Mexico such as the role of the army, given that Washington could transfer certain requests in exchange for others.

Sheinbaum studied in the United States, speaks English and understands the politics of that country, which would suggest a better understanding with Washington, but no one can control the Trump variable, with whom López Obrador got along wonderfully because they shared a style of doing politics although from different political extremes.

The problem, experts consider, is that both on the immigration issue and in the fight against cartels, the future president has not proposed anything new and the policies of the current administration have only timidly controlled the flow of migrants to the north and have not They have contained the violence.

Centers specialized in organized crime issues consider that Mexico’s priority when it comes to combating insecurity and impunity should be through strengthening civil police and prosecutors’ offices, but López Obrador opted for the policy of non-direct confrontation. with the cartels and by militarization, an option that did not stop the violence either.

Furthermore, giving the Armed Forces more tasks than ever, from security to the construction or management of large infrastructures, generated many concerns because they cannot be subjected to accountability mechanisms.

In this area, it is also not clear what Sheinbaum will want and what she will be able to change or what the military’s pressure on her could be. One of her advantages, according to military issues expert Juan Ibarrola, is that she will be the president who comes to power with the most information about the military due to López Obrador’s closeness to them.

For now, Sheinbaum has said that he will maintain the country’s strategic projects, many in the hands of the army such as the controversial Mayan Train that has devastated part of the natural environment in the southeast of the country.

Combating polarization would imply rapprochement with environmentalists, scientists, feminists, academics, journalists or human rights defenders against whom López Obrador harshly attacked, who rejects all criticism.

And, logically, also dialogue with the opposition parties.

Now, Morena or its partners will govern in 24 of the 32 states – on Sunday they won one more, according to still preliminary data – and although the final distribution of legislators has not been made official yet, the ruling party and its partners (the Green Party and the of Labor) will have a qualified majority in Congress and could easily obtain it in the Senate, which would allow them to change the Constitution to their liking.

Election officials count votes after polls close during the general election in Mexico City, Sunday, June 2, 2024.

(Ginnette Riquelme/AP)

Some reforms, which Sheinbaum has defended, are already in Congress because López Obrador presented them in February even though he knew that at that time he did not have enough deputies to approve them. When the new legislature is formed on September 1, these will likely be the first topics to be debated.

Among these proposals there are some as controversial as eliminating regulatory bodies – such as antitrust or transparency -, that judges be elected by popular vote or a new attempt to place the National Guard in the hands of the Army, although the Supreme Court of Justice He already said that was unconstitutional.

Georgina de la Fuente, a legislative researcher at Tecnológico de Monterrey, a private university, warned that Congress could try to push through all of these proposals before López Obrador leaves power thanks to the “overwhelming support” achieved by Morena and his partners.

Ruling party presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum addresses supporters after the National Electoral Institute announced she had an irreversible lead in the elections in Mexico City, early Monday, June 3, 2024.

(Fernando Llano/AP)

However, for the academic, it is appropriate that changes to the Magna Carta are always debated calmly in parliamentary committees and in open forums instead of wanting to hastily approve them, as the president did in the past with laws that were later challenged in the courts for failures in the legislative process.

“We have to see if Sheinbaum is going to move away from this steamroller way of doing politics or if he is going to continue with the conciliatory tone (expressed in his first messages after the victory) so that the reforms can be processed in the appropriate way” , stated De la Fuente.