The United States is a fabric that unravels as both ends pull at it. The material in question may be one of the most resistant in the world. Maybe the most. But the pitcher goes to the fountain so much that in the end it breaks.
We are talking about a battered democracy, a system that has lost its mobility. That has lost its essence.
It is not true since anyone in this country can buy a house, a couple of cars, send their children to university and retire at 65 years old. The American dream is no longer such.
Donald Trump during an appearance in front of the press.
Reuters
Consequently, there are nostalgic citizens, at one extreme, who will vote for whoever promises to give them back what they feel others have taken from them.
Other citizens, at the other extreme, threaten not to vote because they are not given for free what they feel they can no longer earn with the sweat of their brow.
In the middle, a bewildered, troubled and unrepresented majority. On November 4th they will go to vote for candidates who do not arouse the slightest enthusiasm in them. The result is a coin toss.
Political mobilization is therefore in the hands of the organized minority.
“Among the unusual aspects of American politics is that Trump may not be able to vote for himself in November”
Thus we arrive at the condemnation of donald trump. The businessman made history by becoming the first United States president convicted of a serious crime. The conviction on 34 counts related to paying a porn actress to keep quiet about her extramarital affair quickly set off an avalanche of questions about the 2024 election.
Can Trump still run for president?
Yeah.
Can you vote?
Maybe yes, maybe no.
Among the unusual aspects of American politics is, therefore, that Trump may not be able to vote for himself in November.
As a convicted felon in New York, but now a resident of another state (Florida), Trump’s ability to vote in his new residence It will depend on the sentence imposed by the judge, whether it becomes effective, and when.
In the United States, each state operates electorally independently. Florida, like most states, restricts the ability of people with felony convictions to vote.
But the state restores the right to vote for most convicts after they serve their entire sentence. With exceptions, such as convictions for murder or sexual crimes.
In Trump’s case, it all depends on timing. It could be weeks before the judge sentences him, and Trump’s almost certain appeal could add more delays, jeopardizing his ability to serve his sentence before the election.
“Among those who voted for Biden in 2020 and who indicated they would support Trump in 2024, a quarter now say they will support the Democrat again”
But more worrying for Trump is that the conviction has caused him to lose support among that disenchanted majority. Disinterested Democratic-leaning voters and those who don’t like any of the old people running for the White House in 2024 are more likely to say the verdict has made them rethink their vote.
Both groups of voters have played a determining role in Trump’s growth in polls in recent months. Among those who voted for Biden in 2020 and who indicated they would support Trump in 2024, a quarter now say they will support the Democrat again.
Voters who do not like either of the two candidates, who in the United States are called “double haters” (double haters), are particularly influential this year. AND Trump has lost more than a fifth of his support among those voters.
Trump has, however, a card that can tip the balance in his favor. The support of big capital. Because both Wall Street and Silicon Valley are in his favor, and they are expected to inject a lot of money into his campaign between now and November.
Why do New York and San Francisco now support the former president? Because they understand that Biden’s economic policies, the so-called bidenomics, burst their pockets. High interest rates have controlled inflation, while leading to the lowest level of unemployment in decades. But they have severely punished the growth capacity of companies through debt.
*** Francisco Poleo is an analyst specialized in Latin America and the United States.
