The two candidates are neck and neck in a tight race that could help decide the US presidency.
At the Republican Party headquarters in Sauk Countyin the heart of the state of Wisconsinthere are signs everywhere of the upcoming US election, such as a large cutout of donald trump or a sign that says Joe Biden He must be in a nursing home.
Jerry Helmer, county party chairman, has just finished a two-hour meeting with a group of party faithful, and sums up the mood.
“I can assure you that the concern is great among Republicans,” he says after the event in the small town of Rock Springs, whose population barely exceeds 300 inhabitants. “We truly feel that if we don’t elect Donald Trump, we’re doomed.”
Wisconsin is the smallest of the “blue wall” states that surround the Great Lakes that They traditionally vote Democrat. and that could decide the American elections. It has a large proportion of blue-collar, white, and elderly industrial workers whose loyalty fluctuates in elections.
In 2016, Trump surprised Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by winning the state with a message that he could revive the United States with a more populist economy and a rejection of globalization that resonated with voters. Biden narrowly won again in 2020, as voters saw him as a better defender of the working class.
This year, Trump leads Biden by just 0.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to the average of Fivethirtyeight.com polls, which once again makes the result a decisive toss-up.
The political destiny of the state will ultimately depend on whether Biden can win back so many voters in the cities of Milwaukee and Madisontraditionally Democratic strongholds, while makes inroads into the republican suburbs, university-educated and traditionally conservative.
Trump will try to consolidate his support in rural parts of the state while trying to erode Biden’s support among lower-income votersincluding minorities, in cities.
“It’s a battle for everyone’s hearts and minds,” says Doug Jones, a former senator from Alabama who campaigned for Biden in Wisconsin earlier this month. “This campaign is not going to take anything for granted.”
Sauk County, an area of 66,000 residents dependent on a mix of agriculture, tourism and manufacturing, is a key political barometer for the state, and one of two Wisconsin counties to change their vote in the last two elections. Trump won it by just 109 votes in 2016, and in 2020 Biden won it back with a majority of 614.
At a concert in the main square of Baraboo, the largest Sauk town, the mostly white and elderly crowd leans heavily toward the incumbent president.
“I consider myself independent, but the Republican Party has moved too far to the right and I can’t stand Trump,” explains Steve Novak, a retired accountant who just moved to the area from Green Bay, a larger industrial city in Wisconsin.
However, Novak is not sure that Biden will win. “Of the people I know, it’s more or less 50%”, observe. “I think the economy is starting to turn. And I don’t think Biden gets enough credit for that. But it’s going to be a hard sell because a lot of people go to the grocery store and think it’s not working.”
Suzanne Covoloskie, another Biden supporter, adds: “I’d like to think people are smarter than believing again [en Trump]but they already believed in him before.”
Republicans believe that a wave of discontent over high inflationjust like him fear of immigration entering through the southern border, will be enough to tilt the state again in Trump’s favor.
“I hope people are tired of rising prices… nothing, not even $1 stores, costs $1 anymore. Now there’s a $1.25 Biden special,” explains Mike Twoney , a 64-year-old former circus performer and former construction worker who wore a brown Trump cap. Many “blue collar people” simply believe that “Trump cares a little more about them”Add.
Democrats counter that Trump is a populist fraud, attracting millions of dollars in funding from Wall Street billionaires while promising big tax cuts for the rich and corporations and threatening cuts to the social safety net.
They also believe that Biden’s record of championing policies that benefit the economy, such as extensive subsidies for manufacturing and infrastructure, are starting to have an effect. In Sauk County, for example, the unemployment rate is 2.7%, well below the national average.
“If you want a job here, you can get it… no one works for minimum wage anymore,” says Susan Knower, chairwoman of the Sauk County Democratic Party.
The improvements of the Route 33, funded by Biden’s infrastructure bill, have been a great benefit to the community, he adds.
Kent Miller, president of the Wisconsin Laborers’ District Council, a union that represents many construction workers, also believes Biden could hold the state. In his opinion, The rebound in the manufacturing industry in the US represents a big difference between now and 2016when Trump won over many voters on economic issues, as well as his “boisterous” and “non-politically correct” style.
Another factor that could work in Biden’s favor is that the Democratic Party has rapidly increased fundraisingas well as its field operations, in Wisconsin.
Republicans were hoping for a boost when the party’s convention to formally nominate Trump is held in Milwaukee in July. But The former president called it a “horrible city” last week during a closed-door meeting with lawmakers in Congress, a mistake that could cost him in the state.
However, the “double resentful”, voters dissatisfied with Trump but also unwilling to support the current president, are a risk for Biden. Residents not only complain about high prices in general, but about the cost of housing and childcare in particular.
“It’s not worth voting for either candidate,” says Edward Witczak, a 50-year-old father of eight in Sauk City, who has voted for both Democratic and Republican presidents in the past but did not vote in 2020. . “I can’t vote for the worse of two evils and that’s what we have again,” Add.
Knower is dismayed that the race is so close. “Who is going to vote for him now from those who did not vote for him last time? He [Trump] “It’s absolutely a horrible danger, I have a hard time accepting that it’s even in the universe in the polls and that we could be even remotely close.”
But Helmer and the Republicans are preparing for a race that is expected to be close. An indication of how they are approaching the election can be seen in another poster at their party’s local headquarters, which displays the so-called seventh “rule” of a “shootout.”
It goes like this: “In 10 years no one will remember the details of caliber, posture or tactics. They will only remember who lived.”
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