NEW YORK (AP) — Rarely, if ever, has one candidate in a presidential debate had so much material to use against the other.
Republican Donald Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies, with serious charges pending in three other cases. As president, Trump nominated three of the justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade and eroded abortion access in the United States, sparking revulsion even in conservative-led states. And his sweeping plans for a second term include promises of retaliation against his political enemies in both major parties.
However, the big question for President Joe Biden, fair or not, is whether he can effectively showcase Trump’s flaws. Perhaps nothing matters as much as the level of energy and strength that the incumbent Democrat projects on stage.
Both men have obvious flaws that present their opponent with tremendous opportunities and risks. They will face a huge national audience that will include many people who will be tuning in for the first time to watch their 2020 rematch and who won’t watch another debate until September, magnifying every hit or miss.
Biden and Trump will face off Thursday at 9 p.m. ET for 90 minutes in a CNN studio in Atlanta.
These are some key questions we will be keeping an eye on:
Will Biden be able to perform?
Biden’s apparently low threshold for success was set, at least in part, by Trump and his Republican allies, who for years have relentlessly mocked the Democratic president for apparent age-related missteps. Trump allies have questioned whether Biden, 81, can even stay awake and standing for the full 90 minutes even as Trump, 78, has also made clumsy mistakes in his own speeches. Trump on Saturday defended a moment during the Republican primaries in which he apparently confused Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN, with Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives. On Saturday he told a crowd that liberals had misinterpreted what he called a moment of “pure genius.”
Democrats are hopeful that Biden can bring the same energy he showed earlier this year in his State of the Union address, the president’s annual address to a joint session of Congress. But a live television showdown against an opponent who enjoys verbal combat is very different from a written speech before Congress.
Biden’s team is aware that it cannot afford to have a bad night with the nation watching.
Can Trump tone it down?
Now that he’s secured his base, Trump has a chance with swing voters and moderates who could be persuaded and who fueled Biden’s victory four years ago but who now express concerns about both candidates.
But to win over so-called “double haters”—whom neither convince—Trump cannot simply rely on the flashpoints, personal insults and conspiracy theories that typically dominate his public appearances. Instead of talking more about retaliation or lies about the American electoral system, he will have to offer an optimistic vision for the future and a clear contrast with Biden on traditional, everyday issues such as health care and education.
He was widely criticized for his outbursts in the first 2020 debate with Biden, in which he harassed the then-Democratic candidate and repeatedly interrupted him. His second debate adopted a more moderate tone and focused on his markedly different visions of government.
Can he stay disciplined Thursday night? Some allies hope so. History may suggest otherwise.
Mention criminal history
Trump’s surprising legal baggage creates opportunities and risks for both candidates on stage.
Biden’s campaign has shown an increasing willingness to lean on Trump’s criminal record in recent days. But aside from some verbal barbs, Biden himself has largely distanced himself from Trump’s prosecutions to avoid the appearance of political interference.
Trump, who for years has alleged — without evidence — that Biden is responsible for prosecuting him, will not make it easy for the president to follow that line.
Recent polls show that about half of American adults approve of Trump’s conviction in New York. And if voters don’t think specific convictions are a problem, Trump’s attempt to cover up his alleged affair with a porn actress isn’t worth highlighting.
Meanwhile, Biden is aware that Trump may go after his son, Hunter, as the then-president did in the debate four years ago. Hunter Biden was recently convicted of three felonies related to the purchase of a gun while he was allegedly addicted to drugs. Trump has also raised questions about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings when his father was vice president.
Muted microphones and moderators
As is often the case, the moderators and ground rules will likely affect the outcome of the debate. And the ground rules for this debate, the first of two scheduled, are unusual.
It is worth noting that the candidates are bypassing the traditional structure determined by the Commission on Presidential Debates and will instead rely on a mutually agreed upon set of rules and conditions.
Biden and Trump will debate in a CNN studio in Atlanta without an audience. There will be no opening statements. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it is their turn to speak. No materials or previously written notes will be allowed on stage. Candidates will only receive a notebook, a pen and a bottle of water.
Previously, a coin toss determined that Trump would deliver the final speech.
The event will be moderated by CNN’s Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, two highly respected hosts who have not been shy about calling out Trump’s lies and conspiracy theories.
While Bash and Tapper have also led critical coverage of Biden at times, the Biden camp no doubt expects them to push back on potential Trump falsehoods in real time. While Biden’s microphone will be off while Trump speaks, the moderators’ will not.
Abortion versus immigration
Although style sometimes matters more than substance in a television debate, both candidates have to navigate serious policy challenges.
For Trump, no issue looms more dangerously than abortion. His Supreme Court appointments when he was president allowed the court to overturn Roe v. Wade, triggering an avalanche of abortion restrictions across the country. Trump has repeatedly said that he is proud of his role in overturning Roe v. Wade. And Biden will be eager to highlight Trump’s role.
Trump, of course, has stated that he will not support a national abortion ban if he is re-elected. But given his track record on the subject, he’ll probably have a hard time convincing women that they can trust him on a medical matter.
For his part, Biden’s biggest political risk may be immigration. The Democratic administration has fought to limit the number of immigrants entering the country through the US-Mexico border. Her allies privately recognize that the issue is a vulnerability.
Trump likes nothing more than to highlight illegal immigration, so expect him to lash out at Biden on the issue.
At the same time, Biden will face tough questions about his leadership in the war between Israel and Hamas. The president has generated discontent on both political sides for his staunch support for or occasional criticism of Israel.
He will have a great opportunity to defend his record on this complicated issue Thursday night. It will not be easy.
