For more than two years, Western countries have urged South Korea to directly arm Ukraine, insisting that South Korean weapons could play a critical role for kyiv in its fight against the Russian invasion.
South Korea, a major arms producer, has resisted. He worried that directly arming Ukraine could lead Russia to expand its military cooperation with North Korea, which is seeking help in advanced weapons destined for Seoul.
That calculus may be changing. This week, Russia and North Korea announced a mutual defense treaty. Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted that the deal could facilitate the supply of more weapons to Pyongyang.
The formalization of relations between North Korea and Russia surprised many observers, who assumed that Moscow was primarily seeking short-term gains with Pyongyang. The move also angered the government of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
In a briefing Thursday, South Korea’s national security adviser Chang Ho-jin sharply criticized the Russia-North Korea treaty as a violation of international law and said his government would reconsider its ban on sending lethal weapons. to Ukraine.
It is not the first time that Yoon’s conservative government has hinted at a change in its Ukraine policy, but its latest threat may be more serious, if comments from South Korean officials are any indication.
A senior official in South Korea’s presidential office said: “We will consider whatever measures Russia finds most painful.” At the same time, he noted that Seoul is keeping an eye on Russia’s next moves.
As he told the Voice of America Andrii Nikolaeinko, a former diplomat at the Ukrainian embassy in Seoul and now a member of the Ukrainian parliament, such statements suggest that Seoul is preparing to modify its policy.
“My contact and my sources made me believe that it is possible and will happen soon,” Nikolaeinko said, without elaborating.
“It is not only my personal opinion, but also the expectation of Ukrainian officials that this time South Korea will really change its policy on supplying ammunition to Ukraine, probably in an open and direct manner,” he added.
Although South Korea still faces a complicated situation and can proceed with caution, some observers argue that its considerations could be changing fundamentally.
“Putin’s signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership with Kim Jong Un suggests that South Korea’s self-restraint in its support for Ukraine buys it little or nothing in Moscow,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Seoul’s Ewha University.
A European ambassador based in Seoul told the VOA He is waiting to see how the situation develops, but, “it should now be clear that Russia cannot be expected to be able to play a constructive role in ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” he added.
Greater impact
It’s not hard to see why Ukraine has pushed for more aid from South Korea. It is the ninth largest arms exporter in the world and has a reputation for quickly supplying affordable and reliable weapons.
So far, South Korea has only provided weapons to third parties, unlike the United States and Poland, which in turn are directly arming Ukraine.
To defend their approach, South Korean officials often cite domestic laws that strictly regulate or prevent the shipment of weapons to war zones, although Yoon has suggested in the past that such barriers could be overcome.
In April last year, Yoon said South Korea could provide more than just humanitarian or financial support if Ukraine suffers a large-scale civilian attack. Since then, she has not clarified the type of incident that would meet those standards.
At least in theory, South Korea’s decision to arm Ukraine could be a game-changer beyond offsetting the munitions Russia reportedly received from North Korea, analysts say.
“South Korea’s ability to produce weapons cannot be compared with that of North Korea,” said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
“North Korea’s weapons barely help Russia sustain the war, but South Korea’s weapons could change the entire landscape of the conflict,” he said.
Ankit Panda, a Washington-based defense analyst who follows the Koreas, agreed to some extent.
“That’s a large volume of renditions. It’s difficult to say at this stage what the magnitude of the ROK’s renditions might be,” said Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Two and a half years after the war, Ukraine is looking for all the help it can find. Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine and, according to independent estimates, has been gaining ground. Meanwhile, kyiv is struggling to find ammunition to stop the Russian offensive.
“Ukraine needs ammunition where it can get it. South Korea has quite a few platforms that would be very valuable to kyiv,” Panda said, “These capabilities probably won’t be transformative… but they will still offer real benefits.”
How South Koreans feel
South Korea’s domestic politics provide another potential barrier to further involvement in the Ukraine war.
Nearly 60% of South Koreans oppose arming Ukraine, according to a poll published in April 2023. There does not appear to be any more recent polling on this issue, which has not been the subject of intense public debate.
Some left-leaning South Korean lawmakers say it would be foolish to upset the status quo, given that there is no public evidence that Putin has yet provided Kim with advanced weapons.
Kim Joon-hyung, a member of the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, said it would be “unwise” to intervene in a distant war and become an enemy of Russia.
If South Korea wants to change its arms export policy, it must first obtain permission from elected lawmakers, Kim told the VOA In an interview.
Like other South Korean foreign policy analysts, Kim questioned whether the treaty between Russia and North Korea truly established an alliance, noting that Putin refrained from using that phrase in his public comments after the treaty was signed.
In Kim’s opinion, Yoon should give a more cautious response to the region.
“If you want peace, the president must abandon his false belief that you should prepare for war…if you want peace, prepare for peace,” he said.
Many South Korean analysts disagree and say Yoon should draw an even harder line to deter Russia from arming the North.
“For example, if Russia transfers core military technology and weapons systems to North Korea, we would start providing precision strike weapons to Ukraine,” said Park Won-gon, a North Korea specialist at Ewha University.
“This treaty is a very serious problem,” Park said. “There are many historical examples in terms of how we should handle Russia. We have no choice but to act forcefully.”
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