Biden, Joseph R JrTrump, Donald JPresidential Election of 2024United States Politics and GovernmentDebates (Political)CNN
Both candidates have been eager for this rematch: President Joe Biden has tried to focus on his markedly different plans for the United States, and Donald Trump continues to attack his rival’s record.
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The candidates are the same. The circumstances are very different.
The first presidential debate of 2024 between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump this Thursday offers both men a rare opportunity to tilt the direction of a race that until now has been defined by its stability.
Biden sought this historically early confrontation to show the stark difference in their opposing visions for America. His team wants to prevent voters from seeing 2024 as a vote focused on Biden’s leadership — the buzzwords in Biden’s world are choice and contrast — and warn that a second Trump term would be more radical and vindictive. than the first.
Trump has also been eager to debate. He sees Biden as cognitively diminished since they last faced off on the debate stage in October 2020. Trump is relishing the opportunity to lash out at Biden’s record on the border and inflation in particular.
There is little mutual respect between them. The hostility is expected to be palpable in the CNN television studio in Atlanta, where they will debate for 90 minutes that will be among the most important of the campaign.
Here’s what to see:
Will Trump be able to focus on Biden? And vice versa?
This debate will be the first of its kind in modern history because both candidates have already been president.
Voters know them. But many voters don’t like them. That’s why it’s imperative for both candidates to talk as much as possible about each other and their track records.
The Trump team believes an election that is a referendum on Biden’s tenure — which includes long periods of high inflation, rising migrant border crossings and instability in Israel and Ukraine — will result in a victory.
For Biden, making the debate about Trump means confronting him over his role in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, his willingness to pardon those convicted of the riots — whom Trump has called “hostages” “–and for his comment that he’s not going to be a dictator “except on Day 1.”
And one more: Trump’s new status as a convicted felon. Biden’s campaign has begun to cast Trump’s legal problems under a broader umbrella, arguing that the former president only cares about himself and that he ran in part to avoid jail time.
Trump doesn’t want to be drawn into a long back-and-forth over his role in the Jan. 6 riots, potential pardons or his comment about “Day 1” as a dictator. He has prepared for the debate with a series of discussions with allies and advisers that his team often refers to as “policy sessions.” Biden has been preparing at Camp David, surrounded by his closest advisers for days of intense preparations, with mock debate rehearsals that began Monday.
Abortion vs. immigration: the debate within the debate
Biden and Trump represent fundamentally different approaches to the economy, taxes, abortion, the border, America’s role in the world and the democratic process itself.
The debate within the debate will revolve around which of these issues will dominate the discussion.
Biden wants to corner Trump on the abortion issue. Four years ago, Biden said in a debate that Roe v. Wade was “on the ballot,” which Trump repeatedly denied. “It’s not on the ballot,” Trump said at the time. Trump has since taken credit for the Supreme Court ruling that struck down the federal right to abortion.
Now, Trump says he wants to let states pass whatever abortion restrictions they want. He supports exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Biden is expected to argue that Trump will ultimately support a national abortion ban, and that he has opened the door to restrictions on in vitro fertilization or even birth control.
If abortion is Biden’s top issue, Trump’s team sees the border — and the crimes committed by immigrants who cross it illegally — as a weak point for the current president.
In the most recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, 84 percent of voters who said immigration was the top issue believed Trump was better on that issue. Conversely, 81 percent of those who considered abortion to be the main issue went for Biden.
Will Trump come out to fight?
Trump knows that his aggressiveness in the first debate of 2020 was so intense — “Will you shut up, man?” Biden sighed at one point — that it provoked a negative reaction. But the former New York businessman has always been a relentless bully on debate stages, comfortable with the kind of personal attacks and insults that, before his arrival, were rarely seen at this level of politics.
For months, Trump has made questions about Biden’s mental state a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign. In recent days, he has worked to try to raise those expectations. In May, Trump called Biden the “WORST debater” he had ever faced. In June, he praised him as a “worthy debater.”
Change before debate is the norm. But Trump and his team have gone much further, indulging in unfounded accusations that Biden will take performance-enhancing drugs, a Trump hobby before general election debates since 2016.
“Trump is unhinged,” said Cedric Richmond, a former White House adviser who has been part of the debate preparation team at Camp David. “He and the truth are not on the same planet. That makes it difficult.”
How does Biden deal with the age issue?
Biden, 81, is the oldest president in U.S. history. Trump, 78, would break that record if elected, as he would turn 82 before the end of his term. But months of polling show voters are most concerned about the current president’s ability to serve.
Whatever line Biden uses to dispel doubts about his age and competence will be one of the most scrutinized of the debate. It risks being too simplistic on an issue that concerns about 70 percent of voters. But it also needs to be forceful enough that his answer is not quickly forgotten. Those around Biden believe that public perception of his physical ability will depend simply on whether he demonstrates his mastery of the issues for 90 minutes.
Few Americans — other than those who watched his State of the Union address in March — have seen more than brief clips of Biden lately. And while a strong performance won’t fully answer questions about his fitness for another term that would end at age 86, it would go some way to quieting them. On the other hand, a stumble would fuel doubts about Biden heading into the Democratic convention.
Whatever happens, the historically early debate means it will be months before there is a chance to repeat it.
Who will adapt best to the new format?
This debate will be different. On the one hand, there will be no live audience for the candidates to react. On the other hand, CNN has said that microphones will be muted when candidates are not supposed to speak. The rules say the network’s moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will use “all tools at their disposal” to ensure civil debate.
The interaction between Biden, Trump and the moderators will be closely watched. Biden does not want to be bogged down in correcting every falsehood Trump tells. As he said in a 2020 debate, “I’m not here to point out his lies.”
Trump himself has described the debate as a 3-on-1 competition, while his advisers have pressed for the moderators not to intervene. “Will CNN decide he’s a moderator?” Chris LaCivita, a top Trump adviser, told reporters Tuesday. “Or will CNN become a participant?”
Trump and Biden will stand at lecterns just eight feet apart, according to CNN. That means that even if one microphone is muted, you’ll be able to hear each other, adding another X factor.
Who can generate the most memorable (and memeable) moments?
The debate will only last about 90 minutes. But both sides are preparing for the next few minutes and hours, which may influence public opinion.
Trump has a MAGA army ready to amplify his greatest successes. Biden’s campaign has also aggressively targeted influencers on social media, but with mixed results.
How important are these influencers?
The Democratic Party just invited content creators to the party convention to help spread the word, while former President Barack Obama met with 80 content creators in Los Angeles ahead of his joint fundraiser with Biden this month to urge them to commit. “What’s the point of having four million followers if you don’t do anything with them,” Obama told them.
The moments that go viral are usually not scripted: a grimace or even a fly landing on the vice president’s head. But modern campaigns struggle to generate memorable collisions on favorable political terrain.
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, who has been passing along recommendations to the Biden team, said the goal was to “capture political debates through the prism of high-emotional moments that are likely to go viral afterward.” No matter how many winning exchanges a candidate has, Green warned, “if the ones that go viral don’t include those moments, you’re in trouble.”
Michael Gold and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.
Shane Goldmacher is a journalist specializing in national politics, covering the 2024 campaign, major events, trends and the voices shaping American politics. More from Shane Goldmacher.
Michael Gold and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.
