He Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossiissued a grave warning: as geopolitical tensions and the global nuclear arms race increase, the risk of a nuclear conflict increases dangerously.
In an interview with the newspaper The universal of Mexico, Grossi expressed his concern with raw candor: “Although it is not advisable to dramatize or sow panic, it is true that we are not moving away from a nuclear conflict: perhaps we are getting closer”.
This disturbing statement comes at a time when major sources of nuclear tension, such as the war in Ukraine and clashes in the Middle East, show no signs of abating. On the contrary, the situation seems to be getting worse.
In Ukraine, where the IAEA maintains a permanent mission at the nuclear power plant Zaporozhye, Grossi pointed out that there has been “a worsening” of the “risk” of an atomic accident. In April 2024, an attack with drones loaded with explosives hit within the perimeter of the plant, the largest in Europe and currently under Russian control.
But nuclear threats are not limited to the war between Russia and Ukraine. According to the general director, The international crisis has been exacerbated by the resurgence of war conflict between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas in Palestine from October 2023, as well as renewed clashes this year between Israeli forces and the Iranian regime.
In the midst of this maelstrom of regional conflicts, the main nuclear powers have resumed an arms race unprecedented in recent decades. “Nuclear weapons powers are, in some cases, numerically increasing their arsenals”Grossi confirmed, in a trend that has not been observed for a long time.
Faced with this gloomy outlook, the IAEA strives to prevent more countries from joining the nuclear race, as unfortunately happened with North Korea. “We are seeing more nuclear weapons and more countries evaluating the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. We evaluate the international situation as extremely delicate,” he stated.
However, despite the overwhelming challenges, Grossi emphasized the active role of the IAEA in mitigating nuclear risks. “Not only to be commentators or observers of reality, but to try to modify it with the mandate we have,” he declared. The organization maintains a constant dialogue with the parties in conflict and a permanent presence in Zaporizhzhia to avoid inadvertent escalations.
Grossi acknowledged that finding the political will necessary to avert a nuclear catastrophe is like “looking for a treasure that is difficult to find.” But he insisted that “it is worth looking for it and never giving up the effort,” even when it seems like you are taking two steps forward and five steps back.
In this arduous task, the general director highlighted the importance of the voice of Mexico and Latin America, a region that he described as “a continent of peace.” Grossi, the first Latin American to head the IAEA, said he felt “very accompanied” by the countries of the region and permanently embody that “vision” of peace.
Despite the gloomy omens, the Argentine reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to the search for world peace. “I wake up thinking what I’m going to do in pursuit of that goal.“, he expressed, adding that he goes to sleep with the same thought. “It’s something that accompanies you from morning to night.”
On April 25, Grossi highlighted the worrying proximity of Iran to possess enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb. According to the director general of the IAEA, the country is “weeks, rather than months” away from achieving this capability, an advance that has generated unrest internationally about Tehran’s nuclear intentions. In this stage, Ali Akbar Salehiformer head of the Iran Atomic Energy Organizationintensified tensions by stating that they have “everything necessary” to assemble a nuclear weapon “in our hands.”
At the end of December, the IAEA reported that Iran had raised its accumulation of enriched uranium to 60%, which represents just one technical step of the 90% necessary to reach weapons grade. This increase raised alarms within the international community, increasing scrutiny over Iranian nuclear activities and their possible implications for regional and global stability. “I have been telling my Iranian counterparts over and over again…this activity draws attention,” expressed Grossi, highlighting the lack of access and visibility about the Iranian nuclear program.
The diplomat maintained that the situation is worsened by the lack of transparency of Tehran regarding its nuclear program. “The Islamic Republic is ‘presenting a face that is not entirely transparent’ when it comes to its nuclear activities,” Grossi said in February, insisting that this opacity increases the risks associated with nuclear proliferation. Furthermore, he noted recent increases in ambiguous statements about nuclear weapons by Iransuggesting a complex communications strategy around its nuclear capabilities and ambitions.
