(CNN) — Europe has been struggling in the Middle East for a long time.
The decision by Ireland, Spain and Norway to recognize a Palestinian state tells us more about the internal politics of those countries than anything else.
Obviously, the decision of three European nations to take this step is news and will have diplomatic repercussions, perhaps putting pressure on their allies to take a firmer stance in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
However, it is also reasonable to say that, so far, no pressure, not even from the United States, has had a major impact on the thinking of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel responded by recalling the ambassadors of Ireland and Norway, accusing them of supporting terrorism.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza following the October 7 attacks has left thousands dead and devastated much of the territory. (Credit: AFP/Getty Images)
Conversations about what recognition of statehood means in practice and how useful it is for the Palestinian cause in the long term are entirely valid. But the reality is that the stakes are quite low for most European countries when it comes to issues related to Israel and the Palestinians.
In Ireland, Spain and Norway, support for a Palestinian state is in line with the broader electorate and is unlikely to receive any political backlash. The same does not necessarily happen in other European countries. While supporting a long-term peaceful two-state solution, Germany has been consistent in its support for Israel, as have Hungary, Poland, the United Kingdom and other countries.
The main consequence of this is military support, which inevitably raises questions about complicity in the war against Hamas, that is, the use of weapons to kill civilians. The UK Government is being pressured to publish a legal opinion on whether or not arms sales to Israel breach international law.
But these are largely internal issues. European governments have long viewed the Middle East – especially Israel – as something for the United States to deal with, in part because of US military operations in the region.
European countries simply do not have much influence in this area. The Middle East was not something that dominated European thinking in any major way until the aftermath of the Arab Spring caused a huge influx of migrants to continental Europe. Aside from the practical implications of mass migration, it also posed a security risk as terrorist groups hid among refugees and committed atrocities across the continent.
This is not to say that Europeans did not care about the Middle East, specifically the Palestinian cause. Large sections of Ireland support Palestine because of its own history of occupation, while Norway mediated the famous Oslo accords.
The European Union has historically sent huge amounts of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territories and supported a two-state solution. In fact, the European Commission responded to the news this Wednesday: “The European Union has a long-standing commitment to the vision of an independent and sovereign State of Palestine, living side by side with Israel in peace and security.”
Whether or not this prompts some kind of peace process remains to be seen. This is not a coordinated European effort. Norway is not a member of the European Union and the idea that 27 member states would be willing to go as far as Ireland and Spain seems highly unlikely. Yes, it could pressure the big guys to take a stand. But Europe does not speak with one voice and is unlikely to do so anytime soon.
