From London
In a surprise move, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak brought forward the general election to July 4. Confident in the improvement of inflation rates and the internationally illegal deportations of political refugees to Rwanda, Sunak was optimistic about his chances despite Labor leading him by more than 20 points in the polls. “I hope that the work I have done shows that we have a plan and that we are not hesitant to take the necessary measures. I told them honestly what we needed to do even though the road was difficult. “I’m not going to say I did everything right, but I’m proud of what’s been achieved and I’m confident in what we’re going to achieve in the future,” Sunak said.
The date for the elections was January 28, 2025, but since the beginning of the year there was speculation that the government would advance the elections to November while waiting for the economic situation to improve. Sunak himself had hinted that this would be the date and the resounding defeat of the Conservatives in the municipal elections at the beginning of May seemed to consolidate that idea because, extrapolated from the local results to the national level, they predicted a catastrophic defeat for the Conservatives.
What led you to change your mind? According to the British media, the conviction that further delaying the election would be even worse. Cornered by the extreme right of his party and by an economic-social crisis that in the last two years has seemed permanent, Sunak had a light on the way when the Bank of England announced that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, the lowest level in three years.
The prime minister, who took office in October 2022 after Liz Truss’ disastrous six weeks in power, had made five promises to the electorate: the first was that inflation would fall from 10% annually to the 2% required by the charter. of the Bank of England.
Sunak used the familiar discourse of anti-inflationary plans of sacrifice and austerity, but he could not overcome an irrefutable fact: since 2010 the Conservatives have governed in a permanent adjustment. The prime minister’s lack of empathy and charisma did not help his cause either. Now he has seven weeks to demonstrate that this time he will end austerity, improve the standard of living, heal the deteriorated public services, expand access to housing and much more accumulated in the last 14 years.
It’s not going to be easy. The most respected figure in the world of British polls, Sir John Curtice, pointed out that Sunak’s move is that of an “extremely bold or simply foolish” man and that the elections are a goal served for the Labor opposition. “On average the polls show that Labor has 44 points, 21 more than the Conservatives. In the municipal elections the conservative vote fell much more in the areas where they are strongest. Turning these numbers around is very difficult. “It feels like the 1997 election when Tony Blair overwhelmed John Major after 18 years of Conservative government,” Curtice said.
Sunak has one going for him. His opponent, Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, does not come close to matching the charisma and fiery rhetoric of Tony Blair.
Labor’s reaction
In less than an hour of the announcement, Starmer reacted with a very short two-minute video that should have been prepared for a long time given the speculation surrounding the topic.
Unlike Sunak there were no surprises. The message focused on “change,” that magic word that can be invoked from the opposition of the right and left, and in the stability that a new government would provide. “If the conservatives are re-elected for another five years, they will continue doing exactly the same thing. This is an opportunity to change. We need stability, we need to end the chaos, serve the British people to solve all the problems we have,” Starmer said.
The Labor leader matches the prime minister in his lack of charisma, but runs with an invaluable advantage: he has not been part of the disastrous years that followed Brexit in 2016. Since replacing Jeremy Corbyn, after the 2019 election defeat, Starmer dedicated himself to moving the party to the center, criticizing the government and not saying much about his own proposals.
In the video he was seen in compliance with this rhetorical art of using noble words to say nothing. “It is with this vocation of service that I am asking you to vote. I am confident that with patience, determination and commitment, we will unleash the full potential we have as a country,” Starmer said.
In the remaining seven weeks, he will not be able to continue with the same level of vagueness in the face of the pressing problems facing the country. The National Health Service, the NHS, is a shadow of that universal and egalitarian health model that astonished the world after the second war. Today it has astronomical waiting lists for basic and highly complex services, and 10% of job vacancies that it cannot fill. The hourly wage of a “junior” doctor is equivalent to that earned by a house cleaner: £15. Nurses change professions, emigrate to other countries or, for the first time in the history of the service, have launched strikes to demand raises.
The services privatized by Thatcherism have sky-high rates, as in the case of gas and electricity, or are on the verge of bankruptcy, like water. The cost of living crisis has not eased with the decline in inflation because salaries remain repressed as they have been since 2010, the beginning of this long conservative era. Rentals and real estate mortgages have become a trap for a large part of the population. Poverty and destitution increased.
Starmer has in his favor that he is not responsible for this, but he will have to do more than just iron during the campaign. For the moment, as Curtice points out, victory is in his hands. The point is that he doesn’t screw up: tiredness with conservatives is his most powerful weapon.
