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PARIS.- Tanks, long-range missiles, fighter jets… As Russia changes its strategy to subdue Ukraine, NATO members are pushing back their own red lines. This week, after Paris and London, Washington and Berlin reversed their ban on kyiv using Western weapons on Russian territory. Next stage: sending military instructors to Ukrainian soil.
Until last week, Volodymyr Zelensky He preached in the desert. Since the war began, in 2022, it has always been like this. Every time he tried to confront a new form of Russian aggression against his country, the Ukrainian president had to spend months trying to convince Westerners to give him the means to defend himself.
The latest of those episodes occurred this week, when the president of the United States, Joe Bidenquietly authorized Ukraine to use American weapons to hit targets in Russian territory, although—for the moment—only near the Kharkiv region, bordering Russia. Until now, the White House had rejected that possibility, arguing as always the need to “avoid an escalation with Moscow.”
A day later it was the turn of another recalcitrant, the German chancellor Olaf Scholz. His spokeswoman confirmed a similar decision. Three days earlier, during a state visit, Emmanuel Macron He had argued that giving weapons to the Ukrainians and not letting them use them was the same as “giving them to them, but tying their hands behind their backs.” Far from all those shyness, Britain had taken the step at the beginning of May, receiving a barrage of threats from Moscow.
True to himself, Vladimir Putin warned on Tuesday that “this constant escalation” could have “serious consequences”, while its spokesman on Thursday accused NATO of “provoking” Ukraine to prolong “a senseless war.” The Kremlin autocrat threatens. But his favorite technique did not prevent this time from crossing the limits that Westerners had set for themselves in the past.
In January 2023, about a year after the invasion, and after much hesitation, Germany agreed to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine and let other countries, such as Poland, do the same. The United States sent its Abrams tanks and the British sent its Challenger tanks.
“It was already something that, in Russian language, could lead to an uncontrollable escalation”says Alain De Nève, researcher at the Center for Security and Defense Studies of the Royal Higher Defense Institute. “In reality, we quickly realized that Putin could not implement his threats because it involved foreign military aid, as has happened on many occasions in different conflicts, especially in Afghanistan in the 1980s,” he adds. he.
In May 2023, the United Kingdom announced that it would deliver Storm Shadow missiles to kyiv, while the United States decided to do the same with the ATACMS and France with the SCALPS, identical to the British ones. That was a more symbolic stage because, in that case, Ukraine was given an ability to attack that it did not yet have.
“These cruise missiles allow us to spend as much time as possible under radar cover, adapting to the configuration of the terrain,” says General Dominique Trinquand.
Fast and precise, they allow you to reach strategic objectives such as bunkers, protected facilities… Or the bridge. Kerchwhich links the occupied Crimean peninsula with Russia.
Despite everything, in the minds of Westerners, this notion of a “red line” continued to exist, since the range of these missiles was limited to 250 kilometers – when they can go up to 500 km – to to prevent Ukraine from giving in to the temptation to directly hit Russian territory.
Another additional taboo fell in August 2023, when Denmark and Hollandand then Norwayannounced the sending of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.
And each time, the Russian reaction “stayed at threats,” says De Nève. In his opinion, despite the alarming speeches that evoke the nuclear threat, there are concrete signs to observe.
“Even for nuclear exercises, Russia always notified in advance what it would do. The Europeans know it, Russia too,” he adds. But Moscow also knows the weight of public opinion, and how important it is to feed unrest with catastrophic rhetoric.
“This fear has existed for two years and, each time, Westerners were able to cross the red lines. Moscow claims that, for the past 15 days, ATACMS missiles have been hitting Russian territory. It’s true? I do not think so. But the fact that they announce it means that, in a way, they accept that it is so. So I don’t understand why people are still afraid,” analyzes General Trinquand. In his opinion, Putin “never launched an escalation against the Westerners.”
“Oh yeah. On social networks, with cyber attacks. But specifically, with weapons, never,” she says.
Like all the others, the new red line crossed this week by Westerners came with conditions. The first will be to define the authorized targets: military bases from where missiles are launched against Ukrainian territory or, for example, industries that manufacture drones, repair tanks, etc.
The second condition is that we will have to ensure that these targets are actually hit. To do this, Ukraine will have to be provided with support from the supplier country. And this would require some additional involvement.
Which? He sending military instructors to Ukraine. A possibility insisted upon by the French president in recent weeks and rejected by several of his Western partners.
However, following the example of Paris and London, several European countries – the Baltics especially – They are becoming less and less reluctant to send their instructors to Ukraine. On May 21, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, declared himself willing to do so, if France assumed the leadership of a coalition of nations with similar positions.
“The needs of the Ukrainians do not concern combat so much, since their experience is already superior to ours in that matter, but training for demining and maintenance of Western weapons”, analyzes Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
Moscow assures that these instructors are already on Ukrainian soil. Western allies deny. But, while waiting for that official decision – which seems inevitable – several countries have tried to find intermediate solutions. In March, the French company Nexter and the German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann formalized the creation of a subsidiary in Ukraine aimed at streamlining the repair of military equipment damaged in the war, such as Leopard tanks, Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer launchers or Caesar cannons. .
