Mexico is about to live the biggest choice that has been organized in the country and also the one that could change its political course, because the model in power, the Fourth Transformation, involves remaining at the head of the State and having the first woman to be president.
Three proposals for the population will appear on the ballot:
- Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, candidate of the Let’s Keep Making History coalition —Morena, PT, PVEM—
- Xochitl Galvez Ruiz, candidate of the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition—PRI, PAN and PRD—
- Jorge Álvarez Máynezcandidate of the Citizen Movement (MC)
Most of the polls give the winner to the representative of the ruling party, who before the start of the electoral process was already emerging as the possible successor in the presidential chair, although this could change, be different or remain the same on Sunday, June 2.
According to data from the National Electoral Institute (INE), this year of 126 million 14 thousand 24 Mexicans, 98 million 329 thousand 591 They will have the right to exercise their vote. The figure increased compared to six years ago when in the last presidential election 89 million 332 thousand 31 residents were registered with the authority in charge.
Of these, they went out to vote 56 million 611 thousand 27 people, registering one of the largest participations in the country; However, both the ruling party and the opposition have called to eradicate abstentionism, which has appeared in the midterm elections of this six-year term, as well as in local elections.
Apart from the presidential election, the country will also vote for 128 members of the Senate of the Republic, 500 federal deputies, eight governorships, one Head of Government, 31 local congresses, 1,580 city councils, 16 mayors’ offices, as well as 24 municipal boards.
In this electoral process the coalition candidate Let’s keep making history He led the voting intention preferences throughout the electoral process, which could give way to the consolidation of the Fourth Transformation, the leftist project initiated by the current Mexican president.
The establishment of the 4T, which promotes leftist policies focused on social justice, could serve as a model for other governments in the region interested in implementing similar programs to address inequalities, combat corruption and strengthen the State.
Furthermore, there could be a continuity government that strengthens the cooperation of regional blocks such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), advocating greater integration and autonomy in international affairs.
Meanwhile, in the event that the opposition surprises and wins the election, there would be a turn in the administration of the countrywith potential changes in various areas that would impact both nationally and internationally, especially in areas such as economy, security, health and education due to its inclination towards right-wing ideas.
In both cases, the history of the day would be the possible election of a woman as presidenta fact that would have a social, political and cultural impact, signaling a step forward in gender inclusion and representation in Mexico.
In 2018, the leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won the July 1 election with 30 million 113 thousand 483 votes, thus becoming the president with the greatest amount of popular supportwhich is reflected in popularity polls that mark him as one of the politicians in the world with the greatest impact on his population.
Upon reaching the head of the executive, the Tabasco native, hand in hand with the party he founded: the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) and its allies the Labor Party (PT) and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM), implemented a austerity model In public administration, he created “mega works” and promoted social support as the axis of his administration.
However, in this context, he also faced a recomposition of the opposition and the COVID-19 pandemic, which marked great differences between the ruling party and the critical voices that were palpable in the 2021 elections and that had an impact on most of the federal entities.
This could be observed in greater detail in the second part of the current federal administration, because the executive launched reforms in energy, electoral, economic and social matters, which led to a fierce fight with the opposition in both chambers. of the Congress of the Union, as well as in the spaces of this power at the local level.
In addition to this, it is important to mention that the National Regeneration Movement It has become the most winning political party in Mexico since its institutionalization in 2014, so much so that it managed to consolidate itself in more than six years as the country’s leading political force; However, its history has an important focal point to analyze, since was born from an internal breakup of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
10 years after that episode, Morena and its allies govern most of the national territory, not only through the governorships, but also in local congresses and in the municipalities.
As mentioned, this six-year term had the particularity of experiencing a reorganization of the opposition—made up of right-leaning political institutes—due to the fact that since 2019 there was a peculiar alliance between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and was “institutionalized” until two years later, just for the midterm election.
This alliance had some triumphs such as not allowing the energy reform to be approved in its entirety, achieving victory in the entities of Aguascalientes, Durango and Coahuilaeven strengthening the opposition in local congresses, in addition to questioning the power due to the changes proposed to the Judiciary or the lack of appointments to constitutional autonomous bodies.
Despite criticism of said union, by 2022 they strengthened their union under the name of Frente Amplio por México and in 2023 they created a model to designate, together with citizens similar to their ideas, the person who would appear on the electoral ballot in the elections for the Presidency of the Republic.
At the same time, there was birth of the Pink Tidea group that was organized to defend the INE against the reform proposed by AMLO and, although it was named as a non-partisan organization, at the end of the campaign season they decided to support Xóchitl Gálvez’s project, creating a firm line against of the ruling party.
However, the opposition group is not entirely united, since Citizen Movement has stayed away to the alliance, although years ago it had agreements with the PAN and the PRD. Based on what they have explained, their main reason for leaving has been the PRI, although also to personify a third way for citizens, after the polarization that has occurred in the country between the ruling party and the opposition.
In the midst of all this, it is important to mention that there is no character who gives meaning to the opposition or who even reaches AMLO’s social impact, this has meant that the strength of the right is not as overwhelming as imagined.
Violence is another of the points that have framed the elections, since since the process began there have been episodes of crime in entities such as Tamaulipas, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Jalisco, Oaxaca and Chiapas, to mention a few.
Increased activity of drug trafficking, murders, kidnappings and threats These are just some of the characteristics that most of the candidates and their work teams have experienced, which has caused greater activity by the State to guarantee the election.
This panorama has returned to confront the ruling party and the opposition, who have blamed each other for being the ones who have allowed an escalation in violence or even for supporting groups that destabilize daily activities. Until a few years ago it was considered that the bloodiest six-year term in deaths had been that of Felipe Calderón (PAN), however this six-year term could exceed it.
This is how this June 2, the population will go out to exercise their right to vote and make the decision about which project they will bet on to lead the work during the last six years at the federal level, but also which people they will have to represent them at the local level.
The violence that has been recorded during the current electoral process is nothing more than a reflection of the discourse equally violent that has been used by the presidential candidates and their parties, as stated the journalist and writer Ricardo Raphael, in interview with Infobae.
“I see those who are disputing these charges as if they were two separate phenomena, on the one hand, the rivalry and political violence in the upper echelons and on the other hand, the violence and rivalry at ground level.“I think there is actually a very obvious connection and that is that both events have to do with the annihilation of the opponent,” said the political scientist.
For the writer, “the discourse of the campaigns has been – and I quote Xochitl Gálvez but also Claudia Sheinbaum – democracy or authoritarianism. As a campaign slogan it sounds nice, but in reality they believe it and when what you want is to annihilate your opponent, you are giving the entire country permission to, in fact, do it even at gunpoint.”
In addition to the violence, Ricardo Raphael added that fear of the other is like one more ingredient that the candidates added to their speech during the war, something that – as he explains – ironically makes them very similar.
“They have done everything with the flag of fear: If Xochitl Galvez wins then it is the return of the authoritarian and corrupt past, if López Obradorism led by Claudia Sheinbaum remains, what we are going to see is a country with a single-party level of political control, state party, just as it happened in the past. It’s curious, the two proposals are very similar,” stated the journalist and writer.
Ricardo Raphael sees in the two main presidential candidates an incomplete project compared to a finished proposal, a consequence of the “harvest” of what each political group sowed.
In the case of Xochitl Galvez and the opposition, he explained, what sowed It was a “absence of consciousness”they did not know how to take stock of the “fatal defeat” of 2018, they did not present new political cadres or new proposals, consequently their candidacy “arrived late”, so their only opposition was “to attack and spread fear”.
In front, with Claudia Sheinbaumthe analyst considers that The “only advantage” of the ruling party candidate is to offer continuity with some changes which is, with everything and its defects, a more consolidated proposal.
“What we are going to see this Sunday is: those who are asking to remove the outgoing government with an unfinished proposal and those who want to remain with the very finished proposal, but radicalized in the sense of expelling the opposition,” he points out.
