This Sunday Mexico will make history. After six years of government under the direction of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), The largest Spanish-speaking country in the world is holding presidential elections again. At least 100 of the 129 million inhabitants are eligible to vote. 20,700 positions are elected, including the Presidency, eight governorships, dozens of deputies and senators and hundreds of municipal positions. They are the biggest elections in Mexican political life.
Furthermore, everything is in place for a woman to be the boss for the first time. The heir of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is the scientist Claudia Sheinbaum, one of the founders of the movement born in 2014 and former head of government of Mexico City. She runs with an advantage of more than 20 points over her rival, the businesswoman and former senator Xóchitl Gálvez. How is the country of enchiladas, tamales and burritos doing after six years of Morena? What challenges does she face?
AMLO ends his mandate with 70 percent popularity. This is much more than what he assumed in 2018. At that time he won the elections with the support of 53 percent of the votes and with a difference of more than 30 points over the second candidate. He was the most voted president in history. In these six years he achieved large majorities in Congress as well as leading in 23 of the 32 states in the country.
In that framework, The official Sheinbaum maintains that “Mexico is heading to be an economic power”. One of the achievements that he focused on in the campaign is that, During the last presidency, poverty and inequality were reduced. According to the most recent official figures, extreme income poverty in Mexico decreased between 2018 and 2022, going from 14 to 12.1 percent, although many doubt these data given the complexity of the measurement instruments.
Furthermore, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the unemployment rate reached 2.6 percent last April, with the unemployed population being 1.6 million people. Although the majority of Mexicans work in the informal sector, it is one of the lowest figures in Latin America. Another strong point is the appreciation of the Mexican peso by 25 percent against the dollar, which has generated an increase in purchasing power. There has also been record in remittances that migrants send to their families.
During recent years, Mexico has become one of the 10 countries with the highest GDP in the world helped by two factors. One is the confrontation between the United States and China that led Mexico to displace the Asian giant as the first trading partner of its northern neighbor. The transfer of North American companies from China to Aztec soil had a lot to do with it. In this way, the country of López Obrado. recorded historical highs in foreign direct investment.
The other factor is tourism, which has exceeded the volumes of 2019 – the year before the pandemic – by 25.7 percent. According to the Ministry of Tourism, an increase of 5.4% is expected for 2024 compared to 2023.
AMLO’s government also leaves many challenges. Drug trafficking and organized crime They are strongly rooted, despite the policies of rebuilding the social fabric of the most vulnerable territories, which emerges from the phrase “Hugs not bullets”, an alternative to the war on the cartels as previous administrations did. However, the murder of dozens of local candidates at the hands of organized crime shows that this scheme was insufficient.
Other issues to be resolved by the next president will be gender violence, poor health services and lack of medicines, and the immigration issue with the United States., continue Joe Biden in the White House or return Donald Trump. The traffic of guns and fentanyl, are two other outstanding points on the bilateral agenda. Furthermore, it is urgent to apply an education policy to guarantee social inclusion; Educational dropout at the national level is very high, especially after the covid-19 pandemic.
If, as all statistics predict, Sheinbaum is elected president this Sunday, there is no doubt that Mexico will continue with the “Fourth Transformation” proposed by AMLO. Which, like Independence, the Reform, and the Revolution of 1910, promises to renew the foundations of Mexican society. The context favors Morena to achieve her goal. Probably the key to success so far has been the pragmatism of his leader, who has not forgotten that long-term power is affirmed in economic success.
Many describe AMLO as a socially “left-wing populist” who has managed to build his image in a very profitable way, emphasizing that the State will play a fundamental role in guaranteeing well-being and prosperity. But “conservative” economically, where he recognizes the free market system although without leaving his fate to the invisible hand. He has not raised taxes on the wealthiest or interfered with the business plans of private sector companies. Understanding with all parties -beyond criticism- lies the key to its popularity. We will have to see what the polls finally say and what path his disciple takes if he finally gets the head of state.
